Steelers vs Ravens NFL Week 16 picks

The Baltimore Ravens look to end years of frustration against the Steelers and even up the AFC North race when they host Pittsburgh on Saturday afternoon. 

Pittsburgh has owned this series, winning four straight and eight of the last nine. That includes an 18-16 victory at home last month as the Ravens posted season lows in yards (329) and points, were tagged for 12 penalties and turned the ball over three times. Usually reliable kicker Justin Tucker, in the midst of the toughest stretch in his professional career, also missed two field goal attempts in that game. Steelers kicker Chris Boswell was the difference maker in that contest, making all six of his field goal attempts to account for all of Pittsburgh’s points. The 10-year veteran is 38-for-41 on field goals, and automatic (30-for-30) under 40 yards. Russell Wilson went 23-for-36 for 205 yards in the win, but could not get his team into the end zone. The Ravens scored a touchdown with just over a minute to play, but a failed two-point conversion cemented the win for Pittsburgh. Lamar Jackson, who went just 16-for-33 passing for 207 yards in the game, fell to 1-4 career against the Steelers. 

Let’s get into our predictions for this critical AFC North matchup between the Steelers and Ravens.

Steelers vs Ravens Predictions

Pick #1: Pittsburgh Steelers +6.5 over Baltimore Ravens (-115)

Pick #2: Under 45.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Derrick Henry to score the first touchdown (+370)

Pick #1: Steelers +6.5 over Ravens (-115)

The Ravens may be 4-2 at home and coming off an easy 35-14 win over the New York Giants, but there is just no justification for a 6.5-point spread in this game. It’s not just that the Steelers currently own this rivalry with eight wins in nine games. Baltimore hasn’t beaten Pittsburgh by more than two points in five years. A 28-10 Ravens victory on December 29, 2019 represents the last time Baltimore covered a spread that large against the Steelers.

Lamar Jackson is having another MVP-level season. He’s thrown for 3,580 yards and 34 touchdowns, but was just a pedestrian 16-for-33 for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the loss at Pittsburgh. 

Pittsburgh is coming off perhaps its worst performance of the season, a 27-13 setback at the Philadelphia Eagles. That is the first time the Steelers have lost by more than five points. These games simply don’t get out of hand too much, and Baltimore’s defense has routinely kept teams in games this season. 

Baltimore is 7-10 against the spread against division foes over the last three years. Pittsburgh is 11-5 ATS during that same span. 

The Steelers could be without top wide receiver George Pickens for the third straight week, while T.J. Watt, who’s tied for third in the NFL with 11.5 sacks, is expected to play after leaving last week’s Eagles loss with a lower-ankle sprain. 

Expect a tight game in this battle for the division and playoff positioning and look for Pittsburgh to cover the spread as 6.5-point underdogs. 

Pick #2: Under 42.5 (-115)

Two opposing stats lock horns here. Pittsburgh has only totaled more than 45.5 points in a game with its opponent four times this season. Meanwhile, Baltimore has done just that 11 times in 14 contests. 

The Ravens are third in the league in scoring at 29.9 points per game, but their defense has allowed 23.7 points per contest. Pittsburgh is 11th in the league at 24 points per contest, and its defense is sixth overall, allowing just 18.9 points a game. Coach Mike Tomlin’s side held Baltimore to its lowest combined total (34 points) in the 18-16 victory earlier this season.

The Steelers don’t want a shootout. They don’t have the offensive assets. But the defense, and possibly Boswell again, should help stunt Baltimore’s offense just enough. Look for this contest to go under 45.5 points.

Pick #3: Derrick Henry first touchdown (+370)

Derrick Henry is the X-factor for the Ravens in this game. He has been a boon to Baltimore’s backfield this season. He’s second in the league with 1,474 yards and has scored 15 combined touchdowns.

However, after scoring at least one touchdown in the team’s first 11 games, Henry has not found the end zone in the last three. Baltimore needs Henry to be productive to win this game. In the Ravens’ nine wins, Henry has rushed for nearly 125 yards per contest while scoring 11 total touchdowns. In their five defeats, he’s averaging 70 yards while scoring just four times.

Baltimore needs to make a statement early and often with its big back so Henry should top 83.5 rushing yards (-114) for the ninth time this season while also scoring the game’s first touchdown.