Stars vs. Capitals Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:23 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

The Stars (8-5-1) visit the Capitals (8-5-0) at Capital One Arena, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET. Washington lost 5-1 to Minnesota last time out, and now it gets the league's stingiest defense. Dallas allows 2.21 goals and 22.29 shots a game, the fewest in the NHL on both counts, and its penalty kill is stopping 93.6% of chances. Washington's scoring has run through one line: Alex Tuch, Dylan Strome and Jordan Kyrou. Tuch has 12 points (10 goals), Strome has 12 and Kyrou has 11. Tom Wilson and Alex Ovechkin have chipped in far less, and against this defense we don't see that changing.

Neither starter is confirmed. Jake Oettinger (1.62 GAA, .921 save percentage, three shutouts) and Logan Thompson are projected. Lines and power-play units below are projections. Some books grade player props differently once a game goes to overtime.

Stars vs. Capitals Predictions

• Pick #1: Tom Wilson Under 0.5 Points (-125)
• Pick #2: Alex Ovechkin Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165)

PICK #1: Tom Wilson Under 0.5 Points (-125)

Wilson hasn't recorded a point in nine straight games, and he's been blanked in 10 of 13 overall. His five points all came in three games early in the season, three of them in one night against Pittsburgh. He's projected with Aliaksei Protas and Pierre-Luc Dubois and on the first power-play unit, yet he still has no power-play points. His last game ended with 14 penalty minutes in the loss to Minnesota.

At -125 the price implies 55.6%, and his rate this season is well above that. His longer record is less friendly. Last season he went pointless in about 40% of his games, which wouldn't clear this number, so we're betting on his current form and on the opponent. Dallas gives up the fewest goals and shots in the league and almost never allows a power-play goal. That leaves few ways to a point for a player who isn't carrying Washington's offense right now.

One shift can beat it. Wilson still plays big minutes with power-play time, and a single deflection or secondary assist ends this.

PICK #2: Alex Ovechkin Under 2.5 Shots on Goal (-165)

Ovechkin has 21 shots in 13 games and has stayed at two or fewer in 11 of them. He hasn't topped three in any game. He's averaging about 13:31 of ice time, down from 17:26 last season, and he's projected on the third line with Justin Sourdif and Anthony Beauvillier.

The bet rests on that change in role. At -165 the price implies 62.3%. Last season he stayed under this line in only 31 of 82 games, so his longer record says no. This season says yes, and the reason is the smaller role. On these minutes he's getting about one shot every eight minutes, and he's facing the team that allows the fewest shots in the league.

The power play is where this can go wrong. Ovechkin is still projected on the first unit, and he put three shots on goal in under 11 minutes at Nashville. If Washington draws a string of penalties or moves him back up the lineup, it gets close.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.