Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Prediction, CFB Week 10 Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:48 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:44 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Buffalo visits Miami (OH) at 8:00 PM ET at Yager Stadium on ESPN. Both teams are 5-3, 3-1 in the MAC, and both have won three straight. Miami is a 6-point favorite and the total is 44.5. We see a slow, physical game shaped by Miami's run defense and two passing games that can't carry an offense, with a Miami team on a backup quarterback that hasn't pulled away from anybody. That's a case for Buffalo with the points and for the Under.

Miami is without its top two quarterbacks for the season, and Caleb Heavner is expected to make his fifth start. Jason Wright is Buffalo's projected starter. Neither school has confirmed its quarterback for tonight.

Buffalo vs. Miami (OH) Predictions

• Pick #1: Buffalo +6 (-108)
• Pick #2: Under 44.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Buffalo +6 (-108)

Miami keeps winning, just never by much. In Heavner's four starts the RedHawks lost 24-20 to Bowling Green, won 20-19 at UMass, beat Akron 34-14 with help from four Akron turnovers and won 28-27 at Central Michigan on a touchdown in the final two minutes. Five of their last six games came down to the final drive, and they've covered once in Heavner's four starts.

Buffalo has covered in all four MAC games: a 20-17 loss to Western Michigan, then wins of 23-8 at Toledo, 25-18 over UMass and 31-24 over Bowling Green. The Bulls have allowed 17.5 points a game in league play, and none of their last five opponents reached 345 total yards. Messiah Burch has run for at least 100 yards in five straight games (845 on the season), which gives Buffalo a way to hold the ball and shorten the night.

Miami was a 6.5-point favorite earlier in the week and is down to 6 at one major book. The -108 price implies a 51.9% chance. For a game this likely to stay tight, six points is worth more than that.

The history works against us. Miami is 11-3 at home against Buffalo, and the Bulls haven't won at Yager since 2015. Miami's run defense allows 94.9 yards a game and held its last four opponents to 2.5 yards per carry, which is a direct problem for Burch. Local coverage also said Buffalo may be without a key offensive lineman and a defender. And six points won't cover a seven-point Miami win.

PICK #2: Under 44.5 (-110)

If Buffalo keeps this close, it probably keeps it low too. Neither offense can lean on the pass. Heavner has completed 56 of 102 attempts for 615 yards, about 6.0 yards per attempt, and Miami hasn't reached 390 total yards in any of his four starts. Buffalo throws for 154.6 yards a game.

So Buffalo runs into a Miami front built to stop the run, and Miami's offense runs into a Buffalo defense that has kept five straight opponents under 345 yards. Long drives on the ground eat the clock.

The scores line up with that. Buffalo's four MAC games finished with 37, 31, 43 and 55 points. Miami's four games with Heavner starting finished with 44, 39, 48 and 55. Five of the eight stayed under 44.5. At -110 the Under implies 52.4%, and the matchup pushes us past that.

What sinks it is the secondary or a turnover spree. Miami allows 269.9 passing yards a game, so if Wright gets comfortable the total comes into reach fast. Buffalo's defense has forced seven turnovers in its last three games, and short fields can produce points neither offense earned. Two of those eight MAC games got to 55.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.