South Dakota State vs. Kansas State Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:47 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:43 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

South Dakota State and Kansas State both open their seasons at 8:00 PM ET at Bramlage Coliseum in Manhattan, Kansas, streaming on ESPN+. We expect Casey Alexander's first Kansas State team to win, but not to look like a finished offense yet against a Jackrabbits backcourt that has played together for years. That's a Kansas State win by less than 12 in a game that stays in the 150s, so we're on South Dakota State +11.5 and the Under.

Both teams are close to blank slates. Neither has a box score this season, Kansas State's two exhibitions don't count as form, and no starting lineups have been posted, so every rotation below is a projection.

South Dakota State vs. Kansas State Predictions

• Pick #1: South Dakota State +11.5 (-118)
• Pick #2: Under 159.5 (-112)

PICK #1: South Dakota State +11.5 (-118)

Kansas State kept one player. Andrej Kostic is the only letterman left from a 12-20 team, and Alexander, hired from Belmont, filled the roster with 13 newcomers, 10 of them Division I transfers. South Dakota State went the other way, with four lettermen back, including starters Joe Sayler and Kalen Garry. Alexander pointed out that the Jackrabbits' two guards have nine combined years in the program, which he called "pretty rare these days."

Sayler, the Summit League's preseason player of the year, averaged 17.9 points in league play last season and shot 47.1% from three in those games, playing 35.4 minutes a night. Garry started all 32 games and put up 10.7 points and 5.2 rebounds. Jesse Van Kalsbeek joins them after leading the NAIA at 27.8 points a game. Those are last season's numbers, but they belong to the same players.

Nothing in Kansas State's preseason looked like a team that pulls away. It lost both exhibitions by four, 71-67 to Missouri and 88-84 to Nebraska, and Alexander said his team "really struggled" on offense against Missouri. Timo Malovec, a 6-foot-8 forward Alexander values for his versatility, has been out injured and was only "closer" on the latest update. The Topeka beat writer projects a 10-point Kansas State win, inside this number, and at least one other outlet's preview also takes the Jackrabbits.

The -118 price implies 54.1%, so you pay a little extra for the hook. Kansas State has the size edge and is 31-3 in season openers at Bramlage. Alexander's Belmont teams could bury people when the threes fell, and if that happens early tonight, 11.5 goes quickly.

PICK #2: Under 159.5 (-112)

Getting past 159.5 takes both teams scoring around 80, and Kansas State hasn't shown that offense yet. Consistency has been Alexander's word all preseason. He said his team played the way he wants on offense against Nebraska and the opposite against Missouri, and his rotation isn't set: it "may be eight" players one night and 12 the next. JT Rock "definitely will play" but is still working back to full health.

South Dakota State's games ran slower last season. The Jackrabbits scored 75.4 points a game and allowed 72.8, which adds to about 148, more than 11 points under this number. That was last season's team, but the same backcourt runs it. The beat writer's projection adds to 158.

At -112, the Under implies 52.8%. The risk is Alexander's system. All seven of his Belmont teams averaged at least 76.5 points, and last season's scored 83.9 a game and led the country at 40.4% from three. Most of the money on the total is on the Over. If his new shooters find that rhythm in game one, this goes over.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.