Senators vs. Bruins, Flyers vs. Lightning Predictions, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/5)

Fact checked at 8:25 AM ET, Oct 5, 2026

Odds as of Oct 5, 8:18 AM ET

We have three bets across two of Monday's NHL games. Ottawa (1-0-0) is a slim -118 favorite at Boston (2-1-0) with the total at 5.5, and we're on the Over and the Senators. In Tampa, the Lightning (1-1-0) are -210 over a winless Flyers team (0-1-2) that has scored 4 goals in three games, and the bet is the Flyers' team total Under, the thinnest of the three. Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman in Boston, and Andrei Vasilevskiy and Dan Vladar in Tampa, are the expected starters as of 8:22 AM ET. None is confirmed. If one of them sits, look at the new prices before betting that game.

Flyers at Lightning: 7:00 PM ET, Benchmark International Arena (NHL Network, NBC Sports Philadelphia, The Spot)

Senators at Bruins: 7:30 PM ET, TD Garden (NESN, ESPN+)

NHL Predictions

• Pick #1: Senators vs. Bruins Over 5.5 (-126)
• Pick #2: Senators Moneyline (-118)
• Pick #3: Flyers Team Total Under 2.5 (-132)

PICK #1: Senators vs. Bruins Over 5.5 (-126)

Count the defensemen who are expected to be missing. Charlie McAvoy is suspended and can't return for Boston until October 13. Jake Sanderson left Saturday's game after 4:29 of ice time with a lower-body injury; the Ottawa Citizen reported that he is believed to have gone back to Ottawa for more tests and won't play Monday, and the club is due to update his status after the morning skate. His usual partner, Artem Zub (knee), isn't on the trip either. That would be three top-pair defensemen missing from one game.

Both teams could score last season. Ottawa averaged 3.35 goals a game and Boston 3.27, both top ten in the league. Each allowed about three (2.99 and 3.01), which put them in the middle of the league, not the bottom. Add each team's scoring to what the other gave up and you get about 6.3 goals against a line of 5.5. Both penalty kills finished in the bottom ten, Ottawa's 29th at 75.7% and Boston's 24th at 77.0%, and Boston has already given up three power-play goals on seven chances this season. Last season's four meetings finished with 9, 5, 8 and 8 goals. In the consensus price, 69% of the money is on the Over against 43% of the bets.

None of that comes cheap. A -126 price implies a 55.8% chance, and that's after the Over drifted down from -132 on Saturday morning. The goalies have been good so far, with Swayman at 54 saves on 57 shots (.947) and Ullmark at 27 of 29 (.931). Boston's three games finished with 3, 7 and 5 goals and Ottawa's one game had 5, so only the 4-3 overtime win at Winnipeg got to six. Neither power play has scored yet (Boston is 0-for-6, Ottawa 0-for-4). And Ottawa allowed just 24.4 shots a game last season, third-fewest in the league, though it did that with Sanderson and Zub.

A few books have moved the total to 6, where a six-goal game is a push, so 5.5 is the number to bet. If you'd rather back Ottawa's scoring by itself, Ottawa Team Total Over 3 (-143) is the alternative. It costs more, and exactly three Ottawa goals is a push.

PICK #2: Senators Moneyline (-118)

This is the smaller of the two Senators-Bruins bets. A -118 line implies a 54.1% chance, which is no bargain for a road team missing its top defensive pair.

We still lean Ottawa, mostly because of how the two teams played last season. The Senators averaged 28.9 shots a game and allowed 24.4. Boston averaged 27.0 and allowed 29.7. Ottawa won three of the four meetings, 7-2, 5-3 and 6-2, and the one loss was 3-2 in overtime in Boston. Ullmark closed last season well, going 14-4-3 with a 2.41 goals-against average and a .904 save percentage over his last 21 starts, against a full-season line of 28-12-8, 2.73 and .891.

Boston is also playing its fourth game in seven days and its third in four, after a road back-to-back at Winnipeg on Friday and Minnesota on Saturday. Ottawa has played once, on Saturday. Both teams were off Sunday, so that only helps a little. In the consensus price, 78% of the money is on Ottawa against 57% of the bets.

What can go wrong starts on the Ottawa blue line. The Senators will likely be without both Sanderson and Zub, and this is their first season without Brady Tkachuk. Boston is home with Swayman, who rested Saturday, opened the season with a 24-save shutout of the Rangers, and went 31-18-4 with a 2.71 goals-against average and a .908 save percentage last season. Ottawa went 0-for-4 on the power play in Toronto and gave up a power-play goal on Toronto's four chances. Monday is also the first half of a back-to-back for Ottawa, so the Ullmark start isn't guaranteed.

Ottawa -1.5 (+210) is the alternative if you want the bigger payout, and it needs a win by two or more. The two Senators-Bruins picks share a risk, since both lean on Ottawa's offense. A 4-2 or 5-3 Ottawa win cashes both, a 3-2 Ottawa win cashes only the moneyline, and a low-scoring Boston win beats both.

PICK #3: Flyers Team Total Under 2.5 (-132)

Philadelphia has scored 0, 2 and 2 goals in its three games, and two of those went to overtime. The Flyers are putting 20.7 shots a game on net and the power play is 0-for-8, after finishing last in the league at 15.7% last season. Tampa Bay was a bad matchup for them a year ago, too. The Lightning won all three meetings, 3-0, 7-2 and 5-1, so the Flyers stayed under this number each time. Now they get Vasilevskiy, the expected starter, in their fourth game in six nights.

The price is the problem. At -132 the Under has to win 56.9% of the time, and the case for it is three games old. The Flyers scored 2.93 goals a game last season. Tampa Bay's 2.79 goals allowed a game last season, third fewest in the league, is already in the number, and Vasilevskiy gave up 4 goals on 24 shots at the Rangers last week. Treat this as the smallest bet of the three. It's here because the Flyers haven't shown they can score yet.

If you want plus money instead, the nearest thing is Lightning -1.5 (+119), which implies 45.7%. Tampa Bay won those three meetings by three, five and four goals and now gets an opponent that has been outshot 122-62 in three games. But the Lightning have 4 goals in two games, one of them into an empty net. Vladar's only start this season was the 7-0 loss to Pittsburgh, but he had a 2.42 average last season, and we won't judge him on one night. The puck line also needs the same quiet Flyers offense this pick needs. Playing both would be one opinion bet twice.

We passed on the rest of this game. Nothing supports the Under 5.5 (+110) or either side of the Lightning team total beyond what the prices already show. On last season's lines the goalies are close, .912 for Vasilevskiy against .906 for Vladar. And -210 is too much to pay on the moneyline for a team that has played two games.

This pick assumes Vasilevskiy and Vladar start, as expected. It has nothing to do with the two Senators-Bruins bets, so the three picks don't all ride on one result.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.