Sean Blazek's 2 Best Bets for NBA Thursday Dec 15
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
The Miami Heat pack their bags and head to Houston on Thursday after squeezing out a 110-108 victory in Oklahoma City last night behind a 35-point performance from Tyler Herro. Houston has looked like a different team over the past week winning three of their last four games against quality opponents in the Bucks, Suns and Sixers. Miami has won four straight matchups against the Rockets. Tonight, could be a different story with several Heat starters uncertain to suit up for tonight’s contest.
The Heat have dealt with a myriad of injuries this season and the inconsistency has shown in their offensive output. Miami ranks dead last in scoring averaging 107.9 points per game on 45% shooting from the field. Their biggest concern is from beyond the arc where they are shooting 33.7% from deep - 24th in the league. This number is down over 3% from last season where they finished with the third best three-point percentage. The Heat have made up for it from the free throw line where they are shooting the highest percentage in the league (83.2%). If Houston can limit Miami’s attempts from the charity stripe, the Rockets could have a real shot at winning this one outright.
The Rockets are averaging 110.3 points per game on shooting 44.3% from the field. Jalen Green leads the team in scoring averaging 21.8 points per game. On the defensive end of the court, the Rockets are surrendering 115.5 points per game, but have a pair of quality outings in their two most recent games against the Bucks and Suns holding both opponents to under 100 points. They defended the perimeter exceptionally well holding both Milwaukee and Phoenix to under 28% shoot from deep. Miami loves to shoot the deep ball. If Houston can continue to play solid perimeter defense they will have a shot at taking home the victory.
Miami’s Jimmy Butler sat out on Wednesday in their first game of a back-to-back due to knee injury management. He will likely suit up tonight, which is positive news for the Heat. With Kyle Lowry and Bam Adebayo uncertain to play in the second night of a back-to-back, Miami will look to Butler and Herro to lead the way. The Heat have struggled on the road this season holding a 5-9 record away from home. The Rockets boast a 7-3-1 record against the spread at home, while Miami is 6-8 against the spread on the road and just 1-4 against the spread on no rest. Given the uncertainties around the Heat starters and the momentum we have seen from the Rockets, have confidence in taking the points and backing Houston in tonight’s contest.
Best Bet: Houston Rockets +4.5
Milwaukee Bucks @ Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies finish off a five-game homestand against the Milwaukee Bucks on Thursday inside FedEx Forum. The Grizzlies have rattled off six straight wins improving their record to 18-9 on the season. Milwaukee is coming off a dominating home win over the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday. Both squads sit second in their respective conferences on the season. They have split the head-to-head series each of the last four seasons. These two teams are in excellent form coming into this game, so expect this matchup to be a thriller.
The Bucks will be without Jrue Holiday on Thursday as he was ruled out due to an illness. Khris Middleton continues to work his way back into All-star form after missing the first few months of the season. Despite his slow start, Milwaukee is averaging 115 points per game since his return, which is up three points over their season average. Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to make his case for MVP averaging 31.1 points and 11.3 rebounds per game. Milwaukee ranks first defensive rating this season holding opponents to the second fewest points in the league (107.6). Their defense will be tested tonight without Holiday as they go up against a top-ten offensive unit.
Ja Morant and Steven Adams will return after a one-game absence. The Grizzlies rank ninth in offensive rating on the season despite playing without one of their top scorers, Desmond Bane. He will remain sidelined for the next several weeks while he finished rehab on his toe. The Grizzlies offense is much better at home scoring an average of 117.6 points per game compared to 113.2 points on the road.
Milwaukee has proven to speed up the tempo against opponents who rank top ten in pace, resulting in high-scoring games. They finished with a combined total of 230 points or more against the Warriors, Kings, Lakers, and Bulls – all teams that rank top ten in pace. Memphis is another squad that loves to push the pace ranking 10th in the league. There will be plenty of motivation on both sides in this one. Memphis head coach Taylor Jenkins was an assistant under Milwaukee head coach Mike Budenholzer before taking the job at Memphis. Morant loves to put on a show when going up against superstars like Giannis. Giannis is not one who backs down to competition. Expect this to be a high-scoring affair and have confidence in taking the over in tonight’s showdown.
Best Bet: Total OVER 228.5 Points
