Seahawks vs. Broncos Prediction, NFL Week 6 TNF Odds & Best Bets (10/15)

Fact checked at 8:10 AM ET, Oct 15, 2026

Odds as of Oct 15, 7:30 AM ET

Two 3-2 teams meet on a short week, and the market expects a low-scoring game. Seattle is a 2.5-point road favorite at -112, up from -1.5 when the line opened on Oct. 6, and the moneyline sits at Seahawks -143, Broncos +120. The total has dropped from 43.5 to 40.5 (Over -111, Under -108), and 70% of the money is on the Under.

We think the drop makes sense, and the place to bet it is Denver's passing game. Seattle has allowed 166.8 passing yards a game, second-fewest in the league, and not one quarterback has reached 190 against it: Drake Maye threw for 178, Jacoby Brissett 95, Marcus Mariota 183, Justin Herbert 189 and Brock Purdy 189. Denver hasn't shown it can do better. Sean Payton took play-calling back from coordinator Davis Webb for Week 5, and his first game produced 123 passing yards on 27 attempts and a season-high 18 carries for J.K. Dobbins in a 23-17 win at the Chargers. The Denver Post's verdict was that the output looked nearly identical to, if not worse than, what Denver managed under Webb.

The Broncos' defense is short-handed. Cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Talanoa Hufanga are out, and cornerback Riley Moss is questionable. Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who leads the league in receiving yards, carries no game status after an ankle issue, and Sam Darnold is the expected starter. Kickoff is Thursday at 8:15 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High on Prime Video, with the NWS calling for a dry night around 50 degrees at kickoff, falling into the mid-40s, and light wind.

All three picks are Unders on Denver's passing game, so they rise and fall on the same thing. The scenario that beats them is Seattle jumping ahead and Denver throwing 40 times to catch up.

Seahawks vs. Broncos Predictions

• Pick #1: Bo Nix Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-111)
• Pick #2: Courtland Sutton Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
• Pick #3: Jaylen Waddle Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

PICK #1: Bo Nix Under 200.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Nix has thrown for 131, 288, 186, 214 and 123 yards, under this number three times. His two overs took 31 and 42 attempts, and the 123 came in Payton's first game calling plays, on 27 throws while Denver ran it 29 times. The last time these teams met, in 2024, Nix completed 26 passes for just 138 yards. Against a defense that has held all five quarterbacks it has faced under 190, a 52.6% break-even at -111 is one we'll take.

PICK #2: Courtland Sutton Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-113)

Sutton is on the field plenty (81% of the snaps last week). The ball just doesn't find him. He has 11, 25, 46, 4 and 18 yards this season on 5, 4, 7, 6 and 3 targets, one trip over 30.5 in five games. Denver spreads what little passing it does: four different players have led the team in receiving yards in five games. You need Sutton to win that rotation against the league's second-stingiest pass defense to lose this one. The price works out to 53.1%.

PICK #3: Jaylen Waddle Under 47.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Waddle leads Denver with 31 targets, but the yards haven't followed. He's at 2, 138, 10, 35 and 19, under 47.5 in four of five. The 138 came against Jacksonville on 10 targets. Since then he's seen 7, 6 and 5 targets and topped out at 35.

This is the closest of the three. Seattle has let one receiver get to 51 yards or more in four of its five games, including Terry McLaurin's 77 and Mike Evans' 113, and Waddle has a 49-yard catch on his résumé this year. But Denver's targets are spread too thin for us to expect him to be that guy. At -110, the Under needs to cash 52.4% of the time.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.