Sam Houston vs. Missouri State Prediction, CFB Week 9 Odds & Best Bets (10/27)

Fact checked at 7:20 AM ET, Oct 27, 2026

Odds as of 5:39 AM ET, Oct 27, 2026

Sam Houston visits Missouri State at 8:00 PM ET at Robert W. Plaster Stadium, on ESPN2. Sam Houston is 1-6 and 0-3 in Conference USA, with all six losses against FBS opponents, the latest a 30-24 home loss to New Mexico State. Missouri State is 2-5 and 1-2 in the league after a 61-38 loss at Delaware. The consensus line has Missouri State -5 with a total of 50.5, down from -6.5 and 51.5 when it opened.

We see a modest Missouri State win. Sam Houston hasn't scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent, so the Bearkats aren't likely to carry their half of a game past 50. And when Missouri State scores, the ball tends to end up with Isaiah Myers, who has a touchdown catch in each of the Bears' last four games. So we're on the Under and on Myers to score.

Sam Houston vs. Missouri State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 50.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Isaiah Myers Anytime TD (-125)

PICK #1: Under 50.5 (-105)

Sam Houston's offense is why we're under. Against FBS opponents the Bearkats have scored 21, 17, 14, 3, 3 and 24. Those two 3-point games were a 16-3 home loss to Western Kentucky and a 35-3 loss at Liberty, and the 24 came in the loss to New Mexico State.

Their defense keeps games low as well. Opponents have completed 52.4% of their passes against Sam Houston for 5.3 yards per attempt through seven games (one of them against an FCS opponent), and the Bearkats lead the conference with 34 pass breakups. Four of Sam Houston's six games against FBS teams finished under 50.5. Three of Missouri State's six did, so it's seven of 12 between them.

At -105 the implied probability is 51.2%. The Under has drawn 56% of the money on 38% of the bets, with 61% of the tickets on the Over, and the total has dropped a point since it opened. The bet covers the full game, overtime included. Springfield's forecast is dry with a light south wind.

Missouri State's defense is the danger here. It has allowed 30 or more points in five of its six FBS games, and the 61-38 loss at Delaware added up to 99. Landyn Locke leads the conference at 236.1 passing yards per game for Sam Houston, and this Bears defense is the kind he could move the ball against. We'll still take a Sam Houston offense that has topped 21 points once against FBS teams.

PICK #2: Isaiah Myers Anytime TD (-125)

Myers doesn't need a shootout to score. He has a touchdown catch in each of Missouri State's last four games: one at SMU, one in the 34-13 loss at Western Kentucky, two in the 24-21 win over Kennesaw State and two at Delaware. Two of those games stayed under this total, 47 points at Western Kentucky and 45 against Kennesaw State, and that's the kind of night we expect. He leads Conference USA with seven receiving touchdowns and eight total.

He has also scored with both quarterbacks. Skyler Locklear threw most of Missouri State's passes at SMU and Western Kentucky. Henry Belin IV has started the last two games, and Myers caught 7 passes for 135 yards against Kennesaw State and 11 for 242 at Delaware. Missouri State hasn't named a starter for this one, but Myers has led the Bears in receiving yards in each of their last five games and has 796 on the season.

He has scored in four of his six games against FBS opponents, missing only against Texas A&M and Marshall. The -125 price implies 55.6%.

Sam Houston's pass defense is the obstacle, with 987 passing yards allowed across those seven games, and a Missouri State lead could mean more running. Conference USA's availability report for the game isn't out yet, and Missouri State's coach has said the injury list will be deeper than it has been all season. If Myers is listed out, skip this one.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.