Sam Houston vs. Alabama Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:50 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:12 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

No. 20 Alabama opens its regular season against Sam Houston at 7:30 PM ET at Coleman Coliseum in Tuscaloosa. We expect Alabama to win. We don't expect a rebuilt team playing without two of its guards to score enough to win by 27 or to push this game past 171.5, so we're on Sam Houston +26.5 and the Under.

Neither team has played a regular-season game. Alabama's three preseason games against Furman, Ole Miss and Auburn were exhibitions, and Sam Houston hasn't played at all, so last season's numbers only go so far with two rosters this different.

Sam Houston vs. Alabama Predictions

• Pick #1: Sam Houston +26.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Under 171.5 (-110)

PICK #1: Sam Houston +26.5 (-110)

Very little of the backcourt that took Alabama to the Sweet 16 will be on the floor tonight. Labaron Philon, Latrell Wrightsell and Aiden Sherrell are gone. Aden Holloway, last season's second-leading scorer at 16.8 points a game, is still serving a five-game suspension that covers this game. Nate Oats said he "would doubt" freshman guard Anderson Diaz is ready to return from an elbow injury, and McDonald's All-American Jaxon Richardson is expected to play on a minutes restriction. Amari Allen will likely start at point guard, and Oats expects to have Cole Cloer.

The two outside projections we found have Alabama winning by 20 to 23 points, a few short of this number. At -110 the price implies 52.4%, and we think the gap between those projections and 26.5 is worth more than that.

Even last season's Alabama, with Philon, didn't always clear margins like this against smaller programs. It beat Yale by 24. It led Kennesaw State by 26 at halftime and won by 11 after the Owls scored 53 in the second half. A big lead brings in the bench.

The risk is real. Sam Houston must replace 78.5 percent of last season's scoring, is 2-8 against Power 4 schools over the past three seasons and has never beaten a ranked team. Returning guards Justin Begg (9.5 points a game last season) and Jacobe Coleman (8.7) are joined by transfers from Air Force, Wichita State, Indiana State and Wisconsin, and if that group can't find its shot on the road, Alabama can run away with this. Seven in ten spread bets are on Alabama.

PICK #2: Under 171.5 (-110)

Philon, Holloway, Wrightsell and Sherrell were four of Alabama's top five scorers last season, and none of them plays tonight. Allen is the only one of that group still here. Diaz is unlikely to go and Richardson is on a minutes limit, which leaves Oats short of guards who can create their own shot.

Both outside projections have this game finishing at 166 or 167 total points. That leaves 4.5 to 5.5 points of cushion at a price that implies 52.4%.

Sam Houston is starting over too. It has 78.5 percent of last season's scoring to replace and a rotation that hasn't played a real game together, so we don't see it carrying its half of a big total.

Pace is the worry. Oats' teams play fast, and Alabama gave up more than 82 points a game last season. If the new Alabama pieces get hot early, this total can get away from us.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.