Saints v Chiefs Week 5 MNF Picks

The Kansas City Chiefs will be looking to remain undefeated when they entertain the New Orleans Saints at Arrowhead Stadium on Monday night. Kansas City is off to a 4-0 start, but not all is perfectly well in Kansas City. As for the Saints, they are 2-2 and eager to bounce back from a Week 4 loss to the NFC South rival Atlanta Falcons. 

This Week 5 installment of Monday Night Football is set for 8:15 pm ET on ESPN. Let’s take a look at the best bets to be made. 

Predictions 

Pick #1 – New Orleans Saints +5.5 over Kansas City Chiefs (-105) 

Pick #2 – Under 43.5 (-112) 

Pick #3 – Kareem Hunt Over 39.5 rushing yards (+110) 

PICK #1: Saints +5.5 over Chiefs (-105)

The Saints were +6.5 underdogs when this line opened and now they are getting just 5.5 points. It’s not hard to figure out why. Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice suffered a knee injury – and probably a bad one – during last week’s win over the Los Angeles Chargers, and has been placed on injured reserve. Running back Isiah Pacheco was already injured, so Kansas City is missing some serious weapons on offense. Even with those guys, this team was not exactly dominant in its first couple of games despite managing to scrape out wins.  

There is no reason to think that a depleted K.C. squad will suddenly prevail with ease against a formidable New Orleans opponent. Under new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, the Saints lead the NFL in points per game with 31.8. They are also No. 1 in rushing attempts per game (34.5), which takes the pressure off quarterback Derek Carr. Without having to force the issue, Carr is top 5 in the league in yards per pass attempt (8.2) and completion percentage (71.3). Although the Saints are 2-2, they could very easily be 4-0 – with heartbreaking setbacks against both the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints. Even if they lose another close one on Monday, they should be able to cover. 

PICK #2: Under 43.5 (-112)

The total has also moved since its 45.5 opener. It now sits at 43.5, but that is still probably too many points for this matchup. After all, Kansas City’s offense is considerably undermanned and it now faces a stout New Orleans defense. That side of the ball has played well enough for the Saints to be 4-0; they were simply undone by other mistakes and mishaps against Atlanta following a late defensive implosion on just one play (a long Dallas Goedert reception) late in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia. 

On the bright side for Kansas City, it is playing stellar defense of its own. The Chiefs rank 4th in the NFL in yards per rush allowed (3.8), 7th in touchdowns allowed in the red zone (42.9 percent) and also 7th in points per game allowed (18.0). As good as the Saints’ offense has been, it has cooled off a bit since an especially scorching hot first 2 weeks. Count on Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo cooking up a plan that will keep Derek Carr and Alvin Kamara in check. 

PICK #3: Kareem Hunt over 39.5 rushing yards (+110)

With Pacheco sidelined, the Chiefs have employed a running back by committee in recent weeks. Carson Steele had an opportunity as RB1, but he was mostly unproductive and lost a fumble early in last week’s game against the Chargers. Enter Hunt, who was signed by Kansas City after Pacheco went down and played in his first game of 2024 last weekend. The veteran out of Toledo got 14 carries and turned those into 69 yards. 

Hunt now faces a New Orleans run defense that is more generous than its 96.5 yards per game allowed would suggest. The Saints are giving up 4.8 yards per rush attempt, which ranks 26th in the league. At plus money, Hunt reaching the 40-yard mark has great value.