Fact checked at 7:22 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026Odds as of 6:21 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026
Detroit (7-9-3) visits Florida (10-7-2) at 7:30 PM ET in Sunrise, and the Red Wings aren't scoring. They have lost four straight with five goals in those games, and they haven't won since beating Florida 5-3 in this building in the teams' first meeting. Detroit scores 2.58 goals a game, sixth-fewest in the league. The market has Florida as the favorite and the total at 5.5.
This should be a low-scoring game, and our two bets are built for one. Neither team gives up many shots. Detroit allows 25.8 a game, eighth-fewest in the league, and Florida allows 26.0, ninth-fewest. Florida also kills 85.9% of its penalties, sixth-best. Jacob Markstrom (.900 save percentage) is projected to start for Florida. Detroit could go either way in net. Daniil Tarasov has a .919 save percentage and beat Florida in the first meeting, while John Gibson, at .866, started two nights ago in St. Louis. Detroit is still without Dylan Larkin and Simon Edvinsson, and Florida is missing Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand.
Red Wings vs. Panthers Predictions
Pick #1Under 5.5+115
Detroit has been held to two goals or fewer in nine of its 19 games, including each of the last four, and three of those four finished with five goals or fewer. Tonight the Red Wings get a team that gives up few shots and, if Markstrom starts as expected, a goalie who stopped 38 of 39 in Columbus two nights ago. A 3-2 or 3-1 Florida win gets the Under home.
The season records won't carry this by themselves. Nine of Detroit's 19 games have stayed under 5.5, and so have nine of Florida's 19. A +115 price reflects a 46.5% chance, so those records sit right around break-even, and the Over is the favorite at this number. Detroit's slump is what tips it for us, and the bigger bets are on the same side. Bets on the total are split 50-50, but 85% of the money is on the Under.
Florida's power play is what can push this game over. After a 1-for-28 start it has gone 19 for 54, and it has scored in seven of the last eight games. Detroit's penalty kill is sixth-worst in the league at 69.5%. The count limits the damage: Detroit has been shorthanded 59 times in 19 games, about three a night. In the first meeting Florida had two power plays and scored on neither. That game still got to eight goals. It was 2-2 after two periods, and then Detroit scored three times in the third. Detroit's choice in goal matters. This is a better bet with Tarasov in net than with Gibson.
Pick #2Anton Lundell Under 0.5 Points−170
Lundell centered Florida's third line in its last game, between Eetu Luostarinen, who has five points in 19 games, and Jack Devine, who has played one game this season. His power-play time comes with the second unit. The first unit of Brady Tkachuk, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe and Seth Jones takes most of the power-play time, and Lundell has one power-play point all season.
He has no points in 13 of his 18 games, including eight of the last 10. That clears the 63.0% break-even at -170, and his role is the reason.
Last season is why the price isn't higher. He had a point in 34 of 64 games, more than half, but that came with 19:09 of ice time a night, against 17:34 now, and 15 power-play points. His even-strength scoring hasn't moved: 25 points in 64 games last season, seven in 18 this season. What's missing is the power-play production.
He had no points and one shot on goal in 19:28 against Detroit in the first meeting. If this is the low-scoring game we're backing with the Under, he should stay off the scoresheet again.
It only takes one night to lose it. His two scoring games in the last 10 were big ones, a hat trick against Winnipeg and two assists in Columbus two nights ago, and he's shooting 8.0% on 50 shots after finishing last season at 13.0%. That line and that power-play unit are what Florida used in its last game, and either could be different tonight.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
