Red Wings vs. Lightning Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (11/3)

Fact checked at 6:46 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

Odds as of 6:23 AM ET, Nov 3, 2026

The Red Wings (7-5-3) play the second night of a back-to-back at Benchmark International Arena, with puck drop at 7:00 PM ET. They won 5-3 in Florida last night, and the Lightning (8-3-2) are rested and 6-0-0 at home. Tampa Bay is -261 to win. We aren't laying that. Our angle is narrower: both teams run their offense through a small group of forwards. Detroit, without Dylan Larkin, Marco Kasper, Mason Appleton and Simon Edvinsson, leans on Alex DeBrincat's line and top power-play unit. Tampa Bay's shots come from Nikita Kucherov, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel, and Anthony Cirelli's job is to check.

Neither goalie has been announced. Daniil Tarasov made 23 saves last night, and projections split between him and John Gibson for Detroit. Andrei Vasilevskiy is projected for Tampa Bay. Lines and power-play units below are from the latest practice and projections. Books differ on whether overtime counts for player props.

Red Wings vs. Lightning Predictions

• Pick #1: Alex DeBrincat Over 0.5 Points (-160)
• Pick #2: Anthony Cirelli Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+125)

PICK #1: Alex DeBrincat Over 0.5 Points (-160)

With Larkin and Kasper out, Detroit's offense goes through DeBrincat. He's projected on the top line with Emmitt Finnie and Viktor Arvidsson and on the first power-play unit with Finnie, Arvidsson, Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider. He leads the team with 16 points (7 goals, 9 assists) and scored again last night in Florida.

He has a point in 11 of 15 games this season and 7 of his last 10. The longer record holds up too: he had a point in 53 of 82 games last season, about 65%. At -160 the implied chance is 61.5%, so the edge is modest. We still like it, because with Larkin and Kasper out there are fewer other places for Detroit's scoring to go.

Tampa Bay allows 3.31 goals a game, which is middle of the league, and Detroit's top unit doesn't need many chances for one point. The risk is the schedule. On tired legs against a rested team, Detroit could spend long stretches in its own end, and DeBrincat was held off the sheet in three of his last ten.

PICK #2: Anthony Cirelli Under 1.5 Shots on Goal (+125)

Cirelli isn't asked to shoot. He centered Hagel and Gage Goncalves at the latest practice, kills penalties on the first unit and plays on the second power-play unit, behind the group of Guentzel, Point, Kucherov and Hagel.

His shot totals look like it. He's had one shot or fewer in 9 of 13 games this season and 7 of his last 10, with 17 shots in all. He hasn't topped two since his four-shot game against Minnesota early in the season, and he had none in his last game, at Nashville. Last season he stayed at one or fewer in 38 of 71 games. At +125 the Under implies 44.4%, and both seasons clear that.

The Over is -165, so the market expects two shots. The way this loses is a Tampa Bay team that pins a tired Detroit side and gives every line extra offensive-zone time. Cirelli got to two shots twice in his last five. But when the Lightning control a game, it's usually the top line and first power-play unit that pile up the shots, and Cirelli stays in the checking role he plays most nights.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.