Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction, MLB Wild Card Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (9/29)

Fact checked at 7:05 AM ET, Sep 29, 2026

Odds as of Sep 29, 5:12 AM ET

A best-of-three between these two starts Tuesday in the Bronx. The Red Sox (87-75), the American League's No. 5 seed, visit the No. 4 Yankees (93-68) for Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, and New York hosts every game: Game 2 is Wednesday and Game 3, if needed, Thursday. The pitching matchup leans hard toward the home side. The Yankees named Cam Schlittler their Game 1 starter on Sunday after a season with the American League's best ERA, 1.95 over 193.2 innings with 239 strikeouts. Boston manager Chad Tracy said Monday that rookie left-hander Payton Tolle (3.03 ERA, 171 strikeouts in 148.2 innings) will start, with Sonny Gray set for Game 2.

The other storyline is Aaron Judge. He is on the injured list with a right calf strain and took four at-bats in live batting practice Monday, going 0-for-2 with two walks. He has not run the bases; his running so far has been on an anti-gravity treadmill. The Yankees have not said whether he will be on the Wild Card roster, which is due at 10 AM ET Tuesday. Neither club has posted a lineup, and the projected ones leave Judge out of New York's order.

The consensus moneyline has New York -140 and Boston +120, close to where it opened (-143 and +119). The total opened at 6.5 and is still there, though the Under's price has gone from -102 to -120. First pitch is Tuesday at 8:00 PM ET at Yankee Stadium, on NBC and Peacock.

Red Sox vs. Yankees Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 6.5 (-120)
• Pick #2: Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 Hits (-149)
• Pick #3: George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-123)

PICK #1: Under 6.5 (-120)

The two staffs meeting here allowed the second- and third-fewest runs in baseball this season: New York 601, Boston 611, and the order holds per game even with the Yankees' rainout leaving them at 161. Six and a half still gives both of them some slack. Schlittler has allowed one earned run or fewer in each of his last five starts. The last of them, Sep 24, was a planned three-inning, 70-pitch outing to rest him for October, not a bad night; his season WHIP is 0.92. Tolle has gone at least five innings in each of his last five starts on 91 to 97 pitches, with a 1.10 WHIP and a .222 average against. Boston's offense scored 689 runs, 23rd, and New York's 739 tied for ninth. The total hasn't moved off 6.5, but the Under's price has, from -102 at the open to -120, the consensus as of 5:12 AM ET Tuesday.

Weather won't interfere. The National Weather Service hourly forecast for Yankee Stadium at 8 PM has about 70 degrees, mostly cloudy skies, a northwest wind of about 2 mph and a 2% chance of rain, cooling into the mid-60s by the late innings. Check it again before first pitch.

Everyone is on this side, and that is the catch: 76% of the bets and 76% of the money are on the Under, so there's no contrarian angle. The Yankees hit 223 home runs, second in the majors, and all five of their last five games went over the total. Tolle's 3.03 ERA is good, not elite, and he gave up at least two earned runs in three of his last five starts. -120 comes out to 54.5%. Boston's bullpen lost Tyron Guerrero (right shoulder strain) to the injured list; Tanner Houck started Sunday in his first big-league game since May 2025 and threw 50 pitches, so where he fits in this series is unsettled; and left-hander Garrett Crochet, also on the injured list, has a chance to make the roster as a reliever. New York's relievers have been off since Friday's doubleheader, and Carlos Rodón moves to the bullpen for the series. A 3-2 finish wins this and both hitter picks below.

PICK #2: Adley Rutschman Over 0.5 Hits (-149)

Seven hits in 18 at-bats over his last five starts, and a lineup spot that keeps the chances coming. Most recent first: 1-for-2 in Sunday's finale (the hit was a home run), 2-for-4 as the designated hitter in Game 1 of Friday's doubleheader, 0-for-4 on Sep 24, 1-for-4 on Sep 23 and 3-for-4 on Sep 22. He caught four of the five and batted second through fifth in all of them, with four plate appearances in four of those starts and three on Sunday. Mickey Gasper caught Game 1 Friday and Connor Wong Game 2.

His playing time is about as safe as it gets. Gasper, who caught Game 1 Friday, is now on the injured list with a right biceps strain. The projected lineups have Rutschman catching, second in one and fifth in another, but neither club has posted its card, so this assumes he starts, and his recent use says he will.

None of those five games came against Schlittler, who held hitters to a .185 average with a 0.92 WHIP this season. -149 implies 59.8%, about three nights in five. Willson Contreras, who left Sunday's game after two at-bats in his first game back from a right hand injury, is projected to bat fourth and play first base, so the order around Rutschman isn't settled either. Lombard and Nick Sogard also cashed in four of their last five; we went with Rutschman and Lombard, and Sogard's hit prop is the alternative. A single from Rutschman fits a 3-2 game, so this pick sits comfortably next to the Under.

PICK #3: George Lombard Jr. Over 0.5 Hits (-123)

Lombard has a hit in four of his last five starts and a spot in the middle of New York's order. Most recent first: 0-for-4 on Sep 25 in the first game of the doubleheader, 2-for-4 with a home run and a double on Sep 24, 1-for-5 with a home run on Sep 23, and 1-for-3 and 1-for-4 in the two games on Sep 22. Five hits in 20 at-bats, all at shortstop, batting anywhere from second to seventh and most often fifth. RotoWire's projected lineup puts him fifth behind Ben Rice, Cody Bellinger, Luis Garcia and Spencer Jones, and MLB.com's projection also has him fifth at shortstop.

The job looks like his. He sat the second game of Friday's doubleheader, when Anthony Volpe played shortstop, but with Jazz Chisholm Jr. back from a sprained right thumb, Volpe would need to take third base from Ryan McMahon to see meaningful time, which keeps Lombard at short in both projections. Neither club has posted a lineup, so his start is still an assumption.

Tolle is the hard part: a 1.10 WHIP over 26 starts, and no platoon edge to lean on, because he held right-handed hitters to a .211 average this season, lower than the .248 lefties hit against him. A fifth-place spot also gets fewer trips than Rutschman's second. -123 is a 55.2% price. Judge's roster spot is the other unknown: if New York carries him, someone comes out of the projected order. If you'd rather back a hit from the Red Sox side, Nick Sogard Over 0.5 Hits (-114) is the alternative. One Lombard single in a 3-2 game keeps this and the Under both alive.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.