Ravens vs Texans NFL Week 17 Christmas Day picks

The Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans will meet in Houston in a fascinating potential AFC playoff preview on Christmas Day. Kickoff at NRG Stadium is set for 4:30 PM ET, with the game broadcast live on Netflix. This contest features a Ravens team that is looking to keep their nose out in front of the Steelers in the AFC North, while the Texans are fighting for seeding in the AFC playoff picture as the regular season nears its conclusion. 

With both teams looking to make a statement on this big primetime stage, let’s dive into our expert’s Chargers vs Chiefs predictions and best bets for this Sunday Night Football showdown.

Ravens vs Texans Predictions

Pick #1 - Baltimore Ravens -5 (-110)

Pick #2 - Under 47 Total Points (-110)

Pick #3 - Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)

PICK #1: Ravens -5 (-110) vs Texans

The Texans have been in poor form over the past month and just lost Tank Dell for the season in last week’s loss to the Chiefs. The same can’t be said of the Ravens, as Baltimore is one of the least injured teams in the NFL and is coming off a resounding victory against the Steelers a week ago.

It doesn’t help matters that the Texans offense has struggled mightily all season long, even before the injuries to key wide receivers. Houston has only surpassed 30 points in two contests this season, sitting at 13th in points per game, 19th in yards per game and 19th in pass yards per game. Additionally, the Ravens boast the best run-defense in the NFL (tops in opponent yards per rush), so don’t expect Joe Mixon to have a massive game on the ground to help out CJ Stroud against this defensive front.  

On the other end, few offenses are as explosive as the Ravens, with Baltimore sitting at first in yards per play and third in points per play on the season. We imagine that Texans head coach Demeco Ryans will have his men fired up for this matchup, but eventually, we expect the dam to break on a defense that is also dealing with its fair share of injuries. The Ravens have too much talent to be kept down for four quarters, especially against an undermanned opponent. Based on the metrics, matchup and recent history, Baltimore is the only way to look here. 

PICK #2: Under 47 (-110)

Both teams are in a very tough spot heading into this game on such short rest. Surprisingly, this suggests that we’re going to see a fairly low-scoring game on Wednesday, which is contrary to what most would think, given the lack of rest for both defenses. The Texans defense is quietly a top 10 unit in terms of opponent yards per game, yards per play and third down conversion rate. Houston should do enough to slow the Ravens down when it matters and limit Lamar Jackson to field goals on a few of their red zone possessions.  

On the other side, the Houston offense has been sputtering for a while, producing just 270 yards and 22 points per game over their past four contests. Add in that Baltimore’s defense has been rock solid over the past month, and we have a recipe for an under on Christmas Day. 

PICK #3: Mark Andrews Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+170)

Early in the season, much was made of the fact that Jackson and Mark Andrews seemed to not be on the same page, which led to some very quiet showings for Andrews in September. However, that narrative has completely flipped since the calendar turned to October, as the veteran tight end has found the end zone in four consecutive games and 8 of the last 10 contests overall.

Andrews is not quite the same player he was a few years ago, but he’s still as reliable of a target as ever for Jackson in the red zone, so let’s target the top Baltimore tight end to score once again on Wednesday.