Ravens vs. Falcons Prediction, NFL Week 5 SNF Odds & Best Bets (10/11)

Fact checked at 7:16 AM ET, Oct 11, 2026

Odds as of Oct 11, 7:15 AM ET

Baltimore (3-1) goes to Atlanta (2-2) on Sunday night without Lamar Jackson. He hurt his left ankle in the 24-18 win over Tennessee, missed the second half, did not practice all week, and coach Jesse Minter ruled him out Friday. Tyler Huntley starts. He was 8 of 9 for 63 yards in relief against Tennessee, and Baltimore did not score after halftime. The rest of the report is not much better: pass rusher Trey Hendrickson is out for a second straight game, new center Cam Jurgens is out, and wide receiver Zay Flowers (foot), cornerback Marlon Humphrey and right guard Andrew Vorhees are questionable. Baltimore elevated two offensive linemen from the practice squad on Saturday.

Bettors have had a week to adjust. Baltimore was a 4.5-point favorite on the look-ahead line before Week 4. Atlanta is now -3.5 (-109), and the total has dropped from 48.5 to 43.5. Baltimore is 6-11 without Jackson since the start of 2019 and has averaged 17.6 points in those games, though Huntley did win both of his starts last season, against Chicago and Green Bay.

Atlanta is a different team from the one that lost its first two games 20-13 and 34-3 while Michael Penix Jr. finished his recovery from ACL surgery. Since he came back it has won 35-14 at Green Bay and 45-24 at New Orleans. Its run defense has given up 193 yards on 71 carries in four games, 48.3 a game, the fewest in the league, and no opposing back has topped 53. The Falcons have their own absences. Defensive end Za'Darius Smith (concussion) was downgraded to out on Saturday, left tackle Jake Matthews (groin) is questionable after a full practice Friday, and defensive end Samson Ebukam and linebacker Divine Deablo are questionable too.

Kickoff is 8:20 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on NBC. Inactives are not out yet.

We see one game here. Atlanta runs the ball with both of its backs and scores on the ground. Baltimore, with Derrick Henry running into the league's best run defense, ends up needing Huntley's legs to move the ball. All three picks win in that game.

Ravens vs. Falcons Predictions

• Pick #1: Brian Robinson Jr. Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
• Pick #2: Michael Penix Jr. Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-144)
• Pick #3: Tyler Huntley Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

PICK #1: Brian Robinson Jr. Over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Atlanta's second back has run for 31, 51, 50 and 62 yards, on 9, 11, 10 and 14 carries. That is three of four over this number, and the best part is that he does not need a blowout to get there: the 31 and the 51 came on 9 and 11 carries in the two losses.

The carries are there because Atlanta runs a lot, 31, 32, 41 and 35 times in its four games, and because Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson are the only two running backs on the 53-man roster. In Penix's two starts the pair combined for 39 carries and three touchdowns at Green Bay, then 33 carries, 207 yards and five touchdowns at New Orleans. Three of those five scores were Brian Robinson's.

Baltimore's run defense is hardly a wall. It allows 100 rushing yards a game, and Indianapolis (102) and Dallas (148) both got past that. We're paying -113, which implies 53.1%.

What could go wrong is the split. Bijan Robinson took 21, 16, 29 and 19 carries in the same four games, and a tight fourth quarter could send more of the work his way. Brian Robinson's one miss came on nine carries. Matthews' groin is worth watching for the whole run game.

PICK #2: Michael Penix Jr. Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-144)

Atlanta has not thrown two touchdown passes in a game all season. The count is 1, 0, 1 and 1, and Penix threw exactly one in each of his two starts while going 18 of 25 for 256 yards at Green Bay and 15 of 20 for 223 at New Orleans. In those two starts the Falcons scored eight rushing touchdowns and two through the air.

Baltimore's defense has the same habit from the other side. It has allowed exactly one touchdown pass in each of its four games, to Daniel Jones, Tyler Shough, Dak Prescott and Cam Ward, against six rushing touchdowns.

This isn't a bargain. The Under at -144 implies 59.0%, so you are paying for a trend that both teams have followed in every game they have played.

Penix has been sharp enough to break it. He averaged 10.2 and 11.2 yards per attempt in his two starts, and Drake London went for 194 and 96 yards. Both were 21-point wins in which Atlanta never had to throw. With Hendrickson out and Humphrey questionable, a game where Baltimore keeps pace would push Penix past his 20 to 25 attempts.

PICK #3: Tyler Huntley Over 29.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

Huntley ran eight times in each of his two starts for Baltimore last season, for 53 yards against Chicago and 60 at Green Bay. Last week he ran four times for 16 yards in one half against Tennessee. When he starts for Baltimore, he runs.

Baltimore may not have a choice on Sunday night. Atlanta has allowed 2.7 yards per carry, and Henry has slowed to 3.4 and 3.2 a carry in his last two games (89 yards on 26 carries against Dallas, 73 on 23 against Tennessee). There is a catch in Atlanta's run-defense numbers, though. They came against four pocket passers: Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Jordan Love and Shough ran for 8 yards combined. Nobody has made this front chase a quarterback yet, and its edge group is short, with Smith out, Ebukam questionable and two edge rushers elevated from the practice squad on Saturday. If Atlanta gets ahead, Huntley drops back more and takes off more.

At -108 the implied chance is 51.9%, close to a coin flip, which is fair, because his record as a runner is uneven. In five games with Miami in 2024 he ran for 40, 7, 20, 52 and 16 yards. Baltimore's line is missing Jurgens and may be missing Vorhees, and the coaches could decide to limit the hits on a quarterback they cannot afford to lose.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.