Rangers vs. Red Wings Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/2)

Fact checked at 10:35 AM ET, Oct 2, 2026

Odds as of Oct 2, 9:48 AM ET

Detroit opens its season Friday night at Little Caesars Arena, and the opponent is a New York Rangers team playing for the second night in a row. Puck drop is 6:30 p.m. ET on TNT and truTV. The Rangers are 1-1-0 after a 3-0 loss in Boston on Tuesday and a 5-1 home win over Tampa Bay on Thursday, capped by Igor Shesterkin scoring into an empty net. Now they travel to Detroit. The Red Wings have been sitting at home waiting for them.

Detroit is the consensus moneyline favorite at -134, New York +110, after the Red Wings opened at about -140. The total has slid to 5.5 at most books, Over -131, Under +109.

Detroit is without two regulars. Dylan Larkin is out for the first two games with an upper-body injury, and Simon Edvinsson is unsigned and back in Sweden. On the other side, New York's backup, Joonas Korpisalo, went on injured reserve Thursday with a lower-body injury. Shesterkin has played both games this week, so Dylan Garand is the likely starter. John Gibson is expected in the Detroit net. Neither starter has been confirmed.

New York Rangers vs. Detroit Red Wings Predictions

• Pick #1: Red Wings -1.5 (+192)
• Pick #2: Under 5.5 (+109)
• Pick #3: Rangers Team Total Under 2.5 (+106)

PICK #1: Red Wings -1.5 (+192)

Dylan Garand has three NHL starts, all last season, and he is the likely Rangers goalie Friday because Korpisalo is on injured reserve and Shesterkin has already worked Tuesday and Thursday. Those three starts went fine, for whatever that is worth: a 2-0-1 record and 91 saves on 96 shots. Still, that is a third-string goalie on the second night of a back-to-back, on the road, with a 6:30 start following a Thursday night game at Madison Square Garden. Detroit has not played since the preseason. Gibson, the expected starter, made 57 starts for the Red Wings last season. And even without Larkin, Detroit has people who can finish: Alex DeBrincat scored 41 goals last season, Lucas Raymond 25, and Viktor Arvidsson, who had 25 for Boston, joins them on the projected first power-play unit.

All of that argues Detroit wins. It says nothing about the margin, which is my usual problem with puck lines. What speaks to the margin is the money: 84% of the puck-line dollars are on Detroit from 66% of the bets, so the larger bettors are laying the goal and a half.

Where it falls apart is the one-goal Detroit win, which loses this bet. And Detroit's lineup is thinner than the name on the sweater. Larkin scored 34 goals last season, 14 of them on the power play; Andrew Copp, projected into his spot on the top unit, had nine goals, one on the power play. Edvinsson played 72 games on the blue line. The price has also drifted the wrong way since the open, out to +192, while the moneyline has shortened toward New York. The Rangers scored four times before the empty-netter on Thursday, and Detroit has not played a game that counts. If Shesterkin starts instead of Garand, most of this case leaves with him.

The Red Wings moneyline at -134 is the alternative, and it is the bet the schedule and the goalies actually argue for. If you want the puck line anyway, it was +192 at the consensus as of 9:48 AM ET, which works out to 34.2%. The payout is nearly two to one, and the extra goal is what you give up to get it.

PICK #2: Under 5.5 (+109)

Detroit is missing its best scorer and New York has not been generating shots. Larkin is out, and Copp, the projected replacement on the top power-play unit, scored nine goals last season to Larkin's 34. The Red Wings have not played a game yet, and their first one comes without their top center and a top defenseman.

New York's attack has been quiet. The Rangers put 24 shots on goal in Boston and 25 against Tampa Bay, which is about what they did all last season: 25.2 shots a game, 31st of 32 teams. Tuesday's game was scoreless until 16:14 of the third period. Thursday's reached six goals only because of the empty-netter. Now they play a second straight night after travel.

The Under pays plus money for all that. The consensus price was +109 as of 9:48 AM ET, which implies 47.8%.

The number itself bothers me. It has already dropped to 5.5 at most books, so a six-goal game that would push at 6 loses here. Some books still have 6, which is the number you want for the Under, at a shorter price; half a goal is a thin margin to give away. Neither defense was stingy last season, either. Detroit allowed 3.10 goals a game and New York 3.04, and Gibson's save percentage was .901. Garand has three NHL starts, and a rested Detroit lineup with DeBrincat, Raymond and Arvidsson gets the first look at him. New York's projected top power-play unit has Mika Zibanejad, who scored 34 goals last season with 16 on the power play, and Pavel Dorofeyev, who scored 37 for Vegas with 20 on the power play. The market makes the Over the favorite at -131.

This pick and the puck line do not fully get along. A 3-1 or 4-1 Detroit win cashes both. A 3-2 Detroit win cashes only the Under, and a 5-1 or 5-2 rout cashes only the puck line.

PICK #3: Rangers Team Total Under 2.5 (+106)

The price is +106 at the consensus as of 9:48 AM ET to hold the Rangers to two goals, an implied 48.5%. Overtime counts, and a shootout win adds one goal. New York has not shown the shot volume to count on three, so I will take plus money on it.

The Rangers were shut out on 24 shots in Boston and managed 25 against Tampa Bay. That is last season again: 25.2 shots a game, 31st of 32 teams, and 2.87 goals. They play the second night of a back-to-back after travel, and Gibson, the expected Detroit starter, made 57 starts last season.

I picked this over Detroit's team totals because it does not hinge on which Rangers goalie starts or on how Detroit scores without Larkin. There are two Rangers games this season to judge from, and Detroit has none.

The market leans the other way, with the Over at -145. New York scored four times before the empty-netter on Thursday, a Zibanejad power-play goal among them, and Dorofeyev has 10 shots in two games. The power play is the danger. It converted 24.7% last season, fifth in the league, and Detroit's penalty kill was 23rd at 77.1%. Edvinsson is missing from that blue line, and Gibson's .901 save percentage last season was ordinary. A shootout win would also add a goal to New York's count.

This one shares its reasoning with the Under: if the Rangers find their legs, both lose. The Rangers must stay at two or fewer here, so the 3-1 and 4-1 Detroit wins that cash the first two picks cash this one as well, and a 3-2 Detroit win cashes this one and the Under. A 2-1 Rangers win would cash both Unders and lose the puck line.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.