Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/22)

Fact checked at 8:58 AM ET, Oct 22, 2026

Odds as of Oct 22, 8:18 AM ET

The Rangers are 7-3-1 and have one of the league's best defenses, but they've been two different teams. They're 6-0-0 at home and 1-3-1 on the road, where they've scored four goals in five games. Toronto is 5-4-2 and has won two straight, 3-1 over San Jose on Monday and 6-2 at Columbus on Tuesday. John Tavares is still out week-to-week with a lower-body injury from Oct. 15, and Jake McCabe is day-to-day after leaving Tuesday's game barely four minutes in. New York lost Igor Shesterkin for the season on Oct. 9, and rookie Dylan Garand has held the job since. He's 4-2-1 with a .929 save percentage and a 1.85 goals-against average, and he's the projected starter. Sergei Bobrovsky (2-3-2, .902, 2.96) is projected for Toronto on two days' rest, since Anthony Stolarz started Tuesday. Puck drop is 7:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena.

The moneyline is -110 both ways and the total is 6.5. We expect a tight game: Garand and New York's structure keep Toronto in check, and the Rangers' offense, such as it is on the road, still runs through Adam Fox. A 3-2 or 2-1 final with Fox in on a Rangers goal cashes both picks no matter who wins.

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 6.5 (-115)
• Pick #2: Adam Fox Over 0.5 Assists (-105)

PICK #1: Under 6.5 (-115)

Start with where these teams play. Four of New York's five road games stayed under 6.5, with totals of 3, 2, 4, 8 and 1 goals. Five of Toronto's seven home games did too (5, 3, 5, 9, 9, 5 and 4).

The Rangers have allowed 24 goals in 11 games, 2.18 a game and third-fewest in the league. Shesterkin started five of those, but the number didn't change when he went down. New York gave up 13 goals in Garand's six starts, and that counts the 7-1 loss at New Jersey when he got pulled. Don't expect the power play to rescue the Over either. Toronto has killed 97.4% of its penalties and allowed one power-play goal in 38 times shorthanded, and New York kills 94.1%.

The bigger tickets are on the low side: 61% of the money is on the Under, from 43% of the bets. At -115, you're paying for a 53.5% chance.

Toronto can score, and that's the danger. The Leafs average 3.45 goals, eighth in the league, and all four of their road games went over. Overtime and the shootout count toward the total, and the shootout winner gets a goal, so a 3-3 tie after regulation loses. Garand isn't confirmed either. The backup is Spencer Martin, who allowed three goals on 18 shots in his only appearance.

PICK #2: Adam Fox Over 0.5 Assists (-105)

Fox has assisted on 10 of New York's 33 goals. That's 10 assists in 11 games, with at least one in eight of them, including eight of his last 10. He did this last season too: 44 assists in 55 games and an assist in 30 of them (54.5%). He has 360 assists in 497 career games. At -105, the break-even is 51.2%, and he clears it on the long record, not just the hot start.

He's on the top pair with Vladislav Gavrikov, the first power-play unit and the first penalty kill in New York's latest projected lines, and he averages more than 21 minutes a night. He had two assists the last time he played in Toronto, on March 25.

Where this can go wrong is the Rangers' road scoring. Fox has an assist in two of his five road games, the same stretch where New York scored four goals total, and Toronto's kill cuts into his power-play chances. New York has to score at least once, and he has to be on the play.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.