Rams vs. Eagles Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:36 AM ET

Philadelphia is 2-1, but it hasn't covered a spread yet, and the 27-7 loss at Chicago on Monday night was the worst of the three. Now the Eagles host the 1-2 Rams as 3.5-point underdogs, and the injury report hasn't helped. Wide receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring), linebacker Zack Baun (concussion) and safety Marcus Epps (groin) were ruled out Friday. Tight end Dallas Goedert (knee) and receiver Hollywood Brown (ankle) sit for a second straight week. Los Angeles is missing people too. Aaron Donald, back from retirement this season, is out with a back injury, cornerback Jaylen Watson (shoulder) is out, and tight end Terrance Ferguson is on injured reserve. Puka Nacua is expected back after missing two games with a hip injury. Sean McVay said Friday the team was still working through his snap count, but ESPN reported Sunday morning that the Rams don't plan to limit his workload. Jalen Hurts and Matthew Stafford have started every game this season.

The consensus line is Rams -3.5 (-113) with a total of 42.5 as of 7:36 AM ET, and the moneyline sits at Rams -193, Eagles +159. This started as a closer, higher-scoring look: the Rams opened as short as 1.5-point favorites and the total as high as 47.5. Most of the move happened early in the week. After Philadelphia's flop in Chicago and the Rams blowing a 16-0 halftime lead in a 30-26 loss at Denver, the Rams were about three-point favorites by Tuesday with the total around 43.5, and Friday's injury news finished the job. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, on FOX. The National Weather Service forecast for kickoff has temperatures in the mid-60s, a light east wind and a 35 to 40 percent chance of showers. Inactives post about 90 minutes before kickoff and weren't out at our check; neither player below carries an injury designation.

Rams vs. Eagles Predictions

• Pick #1: Saquon Barkley Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-107)
• Pick #2: Kyren Williams Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

PICK #1: Saquon Barkley Under 14.5 Receiving Yards (-107)

Barkley hasn't reached 14.5 receiving yards in any game this season. He has one catch in each of the Eagles' three games, for -3 yards against Washington, 11 at Tennessee and -2 at Chicago, and he has been targeted exactly twice every week. Even the 11-yard game came on a short day: he took a stinger on the opening play in Tennessee and finished with 12 snaps. When Goedert sat last week, Barkley's usage didn't budge. Still two targets.

Los Angeles has given up 171.3 net passing yards per game, one of the lowest figures in the league, against San Francisco, the Giants and Denver. That number comes with an asterisk, though. Watson played nearly every snap of the first two games before his shoulder injury, Donald played in the last two, and neither plays today. The Giants also lost Jaxson Dart on the opening drive of that game.

Smith is the real worry. He saw eight targets last week and 13 the week before, and with Dontayvion Wicks, rookie Makai Lemon and Darius Cooper now the top wideouts, some of those throws could end up as check-downs to the running back. The market leans that way a little, too, with the Over at -117. At -107 the Under implies a 51.7% chance, and we'll take it at that price. The same read at a shorter price is Barkley Under 2.5 receptions at -156. This one needs the Eagles' passing game to stay quiet; the Williams pick below doesn't.

PICK #2: Kyren Williams Over 57.5 Rushing Yards (-113)

Philadelphia just lost its All-Pro linebacker, and the run defense wasn't holding up even with him. The Eagles have allowed 127.3 rushing yards per game against Washington, Tennessee and Chicago, which puts them in the bottom half of the league. Baun was an every-down player in the first three games. With him and Epps out, Jeremiah Trotter Jr., who has barely played on defense this season, is expected to start next to Jihaad Campbell (limited Friday, cleared to play).

Williams's workload has gone up every week: 11, 12 and 15 carries for 41, 85 and 88 yards. The line sits below each of his last two games. The Rams average 133.7 rushing yards per game, and as 3.5-point favorites they should have chances to lean on the run late. At -113 (a 53.1% implied chance, with the Under at -111), it's a fair number rather than a steal.

Blake Corum is why this isn't a bigger play. He has 10, 12 and 6 carries, so Williams doesn't own the backfield, and the opener showed he can be held to 41 yards. Philadelphia's run defense is soft, not the league's worst. Nacua's return could go either way for Williams: one beat reporter thinks it lightens the box, while a full workload for Nacua could also push the Rams toward the pass. Williams to score anytime is also on the board at -110. His carries add up fastest with a Rams lead, and that game script also suits the Barkley Under, since both are helped if Philadelphia's passing game struggles.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.