Raiders vs. Jets Prediction, NFL Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (11/1)

Fact checked at 8:24 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

Odds as of 7:28 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

The Raiders (3-4) visit the Jets (2-5) at MetLife Stadium for a 1:00 PM ET kickoff on Fox, with New York a 1.5-point favorite. We expect both teams to score on defenses that have stopped holding up, and we expect Las Vegas' points to come through the air, mostly to Brock Bowers, Tre Tucker and Ashton Jeanty. That adds up to the Over, Jeanty's catches and Jalen Nailor staying under a small receiving line.

Las Vegas has lost four straight, the last 35-21 to the Rams, and Kirk Cousins remains the starter after coach Klint Kubiak ruled out a change. New York lost 28-25 to Miami and came out of it without nose tackle T'Vondre Sweat, now on injured reserve. Rookie edge rusher David Bailey is doubtful. The forecast is mostly sunny with light wind.

Raiders vs. Jets Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 46 (-111)
• Pick #2: Ashton Jeanty Over 3.5 Receptions (-122)
• Pick #3: Jalen Nailor Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Over 46 (-111)

The Raiders have allowed at least 27 points in five straight games, and all five went past 46. During the four-game slide they've given up 35.8 points a game. They're also 31st against the run at 143.6 yards a game. Braelon Allen has two 100-yard games while Breece Hall, questionable again, has missed four straight.

New York's defense has its own holes. The Jets gave up 26 and 28 in their last two games, and Sweat, a 366-pound starter, is out for at least four games, with rookie Darrell Jackson Jr. expected to replace him. Bailey leads the team with 5.5 sacks and didn't practice all week. We're assuming he sits, and if he plays, some of that goes away. Las Vegas scores 26.1 points a game, sixth in the league, while ranking 31st in rushing.

The number has already climbed. One major book had 42.5 and another 44.5 after the Week 7 games, and the number is 46 now, with some books at 45.5 and others at 46.5. The -111 price implies 52.6%, and across both teams' games, 7 of 14 have cleared 46. The money is at 64% on the Over against 53% of the bets.

New York's offense is the weak link here. They score 19.6 a game, 27th, only 2 of their 7 games went past this number, and they won 23-10 and 17-12. They've also allowed just 187.7 passing yards a game, fifth-fewest, and passing is how the Raiders score.

PICK #2: Ashton Jeanty Over 3.5 Receptions (-122)

Jeanty leads all NFL running backs with 34 catches, largely because the Raiders' run game gives them little reason to hand it to him. He's averaging 3.1 yards a carry and ran for 15 yards last week, when he caught all eight of his targets for 61 yards and a touchdown. His catches run 8, 4, 3, 6, 3, 4 and 6, most recent first. That clears this line in 5 of 7, a small sample, against the 55.0% that -122 implies.

He has drawn at least six targets in six of seven games. Cousins threw 85 passes in the last two games, and a game that clears 46 should keep him throwing.

The matchup looks bad until you check who the Jets have faced. They've allowed only 24 catches to running backs in seven games, 3.4 a game, but six of those seven opponents threw to their backs about four times a game combined. Jeanty alone averages more than six targets. The one back used like him, Detroit's Jahmyr Gibbs, caught 7 of 8, and no other back had more than three.

He caught exactly three in two of his games, so there's little room. Last season, in a different offense, he cleared 3.5 in only 6 of 17 games. Jack Bech's return adds another option, and a Raiders lead would mean fewer throws.

PICK #3: Jalen Nailor Under 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

All that passing hasn't reached Nailor. On those 85 Cousins throws, he caught 3 of 9 targets for 23 yards. In the five games he's finished, he has 14, 9, 16, 9 and 27 yards, most recent first; a concussion ended his Week 4 early and cost him Week 5. That's 4 of 5 under, in a short record, against the 53.3% that -114 implies. The three of those games that cleared 46 gave him 16, 9 and 14.

He's on the field plenty. He ran a route on 42 of 49 dropbacks last week and finished with 2 catches on 5 targets for 14 yards. Bowers has at least 70 receiving yards in five straight games, Tucker is the top wideout with 12 targets last week, and Jeanty takes the short throws. The room also got more crowded, with Bech off injured reserve for this game after practicing fully and Dont'e Thornton Jr. also back. Either could cut into Nailor's playing time.

The risk is that 16.5 yards is one catch, and his targets average 12.3 air yards. With Minnesota last season he stayed under this number in only 8 of 17 games, though in a smaller role.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.