Raiders vs Chiefs NFL Week 13 Black Friday picks

The Las Vegas Raiders, losers of seven straight, travel to Kansas City to take on the 10-1 Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium on Black Friday afternoon. This is a classic AFC West matchup and Las Vegas will be eager to replicate their 20-14 Christmas Day victory over the Chiefs last year. Kansas City got back in the win column at the Carolina Panthers last Sunday after suffering its first defeat of the season the week before at Buffalo. Conversely, Las Vegas has been in an absolute tailspin over the past two months. Five of their losses during this seven-game streak have been by double digits. However, Las Vegas traditionally plays the Chiefs tough, including in a 27-20 defeat at home last month. Let’s get into our Raiders vs Chiefs best bets and predictions for this Black Friday game, kicking off at 3:00 pm ET.

Raiders vs Chiefs Predictions

Pick #1: Las Vegas Raiders +13 over Kansas City Chiefs (-110)

Pick #2: Over 42.5 (-110)

Pick #3: Brock Bowers over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

Pick #1: Raiders +13 over Chiefs (-110)

This prediction has more to do with the Chiefs than anything. Kansas City has been heavenly for fans, but quite perplexing when it comes to spreads. The team is 10-1 and well on its way to an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title. The Chiefs have won 16 of their last 17 games. They’re a dynasty, a juggernaut. Yet, the team is just 5-6 against the spread this season and that includes 0-5 ATS in its last five games. Kansas City held on in a 30-27 victory over the Panthers last week. It lost to the Bills the week before. It held on thanks to a last-minute field goal block the week before against the Denver Broncos. Patrick Mahomes and company are getting the results but they’re not covering the spreads.

Another of those games where the Chiefs did not cover was a 27-20 victory over the Raiders in Las Vegas at the end of October. Patrick Mahomes threw for 262 yards and two touchdowns while Travis Kelce had 10 catches for 90 yards and a score. But DJ Turner caught an 11-yard pass from Gardner Minshew with two minutes left in the game to give the Raiders a backdoor cover. Expecting a similar result on Friday. Las Vegas may not be celebrating a holiday victory like they did at Arrowhead last Christmas, but look for them to cover the 13-point spread as underdogs.

Pick #2: Over 42.5 (-110)

The Raiders have played to the over six times in their past seven games. Kansas City has done the same in four of its last five contests. The two teams combined for 47 points when they last met. 

The only reason for pause here is Las Vegas has to go back to Aidan O’Connell at quarterback as Gardner Minshew was lost for the season with a broken collarbone sustained late in the 29-19 loss to the Broncos last week. O’Connell has made four appearances this season, including one start. In those four contests, the Raiders have averaged just 17 points a game. Both teams should be able to do enough offensively to surpass 42.5 points.  

Pick #3: Brock Bowers over 60.5 receiving yards (-115)

Bowers was hailed as the next great tight end when he was taken by the Raiders in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft this past April. He has done nothing to temper that belief, leading the team with 74 catches, 744 yards and three touchdowns. He had career-highs of 13 catches for 126 yards and scored one touchdown in the team’s 34-19 loss to the Miami Dolphins two weeks ago.

Las Vegas needs Bowers to be big again this week against a Kansas City defense that has allowed the most receiving yards (72) per game to tight ends in the league. Bowers had five catches for 58 yards against Kansas City last month. Look for those numbers to improve this time around and for Bowers to tally more than 60 receiving yards against the Chiefs.