Raiders vs. Broncos NFL Week 10 TNF Best Picks 

Thursday Night Football in Week 10 of the 2025 NFL campaign is an AFC West showdown between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos. It has been a tale of two very different seasons for these division rivals, as the Raiders are heading to Denver with a 2-6 record while the Broncos are sitting pretty at 7-2. 

With Thursday’s contest set for 8:15 pm ET on Amazon Prime, it’s time to break down the odds and discuss the best bets to make.

Thursday Night Football Predictions 

• Pick #1: Denver Broncos -9.5 (-110) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-110) 
• Pick #2: Under 42.5 Total Points (-115) 
• Pick #3: Geno Smith Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-114) 

PICK #1: Broncos -9.5 (-110) vs. Raiders

The Raiders are terrible, and they actually seem to be getting worse as the season progresses. Head coach Pete Carroll’s crew is 1-6 in its last seven games, and their only win during this stretch has come against the lowly Tennessee Titans. Las Vegas has lost by double-digits on four occasions, including by 34 points to the Indianapolis Colts and by 31 to the Kansas City Chiefs. Since Week 2 of last season, the Raiders have earned just two road victories. Asking them to prevail in Denver – or even come close – is probably unrealistic.

The Broncos have won five in a row overall and are 4-0 at Empower Field so far in 2025. Second-year signal-caller Bo Nix has accounted for 20 total touchdowns (17 passing and three rushing) and is playing mistake-free football for the most part. Since throwing three interceptions in the first two contests, the Oregon product has been picked off three times in the last seven outings. Count on the home side to prevail by at least 10 points on Thursday Night Football. 

PICK #2: Under 42.5 Total Points (-115)

Denver’s defense is simply sensational. It ranks No. 3 overall in the NFL, No. 4 in scoring (18.4 PPG), No. 6 in passing and No. 8 in rushing. Cornerback Pat Surtain II is out with a pectoral injury, but it didn’t matter against the Houston Texans last weekend. In an 18-15 victory, the Broncos limited the Texans (CJ Stroud and Davis Mills combined) to 191 passing yards and sacked them four times.

Head coach Sean Payton’s team leads the league by a country mile in sacks with 40 (the Detroit Lions are second with 28). If there is any good news for Las Vegas, it’s that it can stop the run. The Raiders are ninth league-wide in opponents’ yards per rush (3.9). The Under is 3-1 in the Raiders’ last four overall and 7-1 in their previous eight on the road dating back to last season. It is 8-3 in the Broncos’ last 11 overall. Look for those trends to continue with yet another relatively low-scoring affair on Thursday. 

PICK #3: Geno Smith Under 212.5 Passing Yards (-114) 

Despite using their first-round draft pick this spring on running back Ashton Jeanty, the Raiders are getting next to nothing from the ground game. As such, opposing defenses can drop a whole lot of guys back in coverage and give Smith all kinds of problems.

The veteran out of West Virginia has been limited to 180 passing yards or fewer in four of the last seven games, including an anemic 67 yards by Kansas City. Moreover, expect Las Vegas to try to run the ball as much as possible on Thursday. As a heavy underdog, it will want to shorten the game, keep the clock moving and limit the total number of possessions.