Pittsburgh vs. Miami Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:21 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:20 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

No. 1 Miami (6-0) hosts Pittsburgh (5-2) at noon ET Saturday in Miami Gardens, and neither offense should get much done on the ground. Pitt allows 57.3 rushing yards a game, the fewest in the FBS. Miami is right behind at 58.5, giving up 2.3 yards a carry and two rushing touchdowns all season. This one will be decided by the quarterbacks.

Miami has a big edge there. Darian Mensah has completed 135 of 167 passes for 1,764 yards, 18 touchdowns and one interception. Pitt lost Mason Heintschel to a torn ACL in its 35-33 win at Virginia Tech and has dropped both games since, scoring 17 and 21. Holden Geriner, who went 27-of-44 for 219 yards and two interceptions in the loss to North Carolina, is expected to start, and freshman Corey Dailey may play too. Pitt's pass defense is the soft spot. It allows 249.0 passing yards a game, 116th in the FBS, and it is short in the secondary: defensive backs Allen Bryant and Isaac Patterson are listed out, and Rashan Murray and Josh Guerrier are questionable.

Pittsburgh vs. Miami Predictions

• Pick #1: Malachi Toney Anytime Touchdown (-170)
• Pick #2: Elija Lofton 25+ Receiving Yards (-144)

PICK #1: Malachi Toney Anytime Touchdown (-170)

Toney has scored in five of Miami's six games and has eight touchdown catches. His 50 catches have gone for 758 yards, and he has done his best work against FBS defenses: 12 catches for 234 yards and three scores at Stanford, 12 for 114 and a score at Wake Forest, six for 120 and a score against Central Michigan, and 11 for 154 and two scores against Florida State.

Mark Fletcher Jr. and Javian Mallory have run for 11 touchdowns between them, but Pitt allows 2.0 yards a carry, and short runs at the goal line get a lot harder against that front. When Miami gets close, its best option is likely to be its best receiver. The -170 price implies a 63.0% chance that he scores. He has done it in four of five games against FBS opponents, and only 22 FBS teams allow more passing yards per game than Pitt.

He was blanked at Clemson, held to five catches for 40 yards, so a defense can take him away. He also left the Florida State game for a short stretch with an injury, though he came back and isn't on the conference's availability report. Pitt has also allowed only nine touchdown passes in seven games; it gives up yards through the air more readily than scores. And Fletcher and Mallory have each had two-touchdown games this season, so Miami can still finish drives without him.

PICK #2: Elija Lofton 25+ Receiving Yards (-144)

Miami's tight end has gone over this number in four straight games. Since the Wake Forest game, Lofton has 13 catches for 137 yards: 39 at Wake Forest, 38 against Central Michigan, 34 at Clemson and 26 against Florida State. He also caught touchdowns at Wake Forest and against Florida State.

If Pitt's front stops Miami's backs, Mensah throws more, and a secondary missing two defensive backs has to cover Toney and everyone else. The -144 price works out to 59.0%. A tight end with that kind of floor, facing the FBS's 116th-ranked pass defense, should get there more often than that.

There isn't much cushion. He had 26 yards against Florida State, one more than he needs, and he hasn't topped 39 all season. In his first two games he caught one pass each, for 14 yards at Stanford and 9 against Florida A&M. Miami also spreads the ball around: Toney, Cooper Barkate and Daylyn Upshaw have all had big games this season, and a lopsided score could mean more runs in the second half.

Both picks need the same game: Pitt's defense takes away Miami's running game, Mensah throws, and Miami wins comfortably.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.