Pistons vs. Wizards Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/12)

The 11-point final three nights ago makes that game sound closer than it was. Detroit never trailed by more than a point, led by 19 and was up 103-87 after three quarters. It did that with Cunningham held to 27 minutes by five fouls, and on a night when Anthony Davis scored 44 points on 16-of-21 shooting. The rest of the Wizards shot 25 of 68. Washington committed 19 turnovers, made 9 of 36 threes and was outscored 19-4 on the fast break.

Now the Wizards get the same defense on less rest. They were tied with Indiana after three quarters last night and lost the fourth 37-24. Kyshawn George played 39 minutes, and Davis, Trae Young and AJ Dybantsa played 34 apiece. Washington started the season 4-3 and has since lost five straight, by 15, 7, 39, 11 and 13 points. Davis sat out two of those, including the 39-point loss at Oklahoma City, but he was back for the last two.

Over the full season Detroit outscores its opponents by 8.1 points a game, and Washington is outscored by 5.9. The Wizards score 107.5 a game, 27th in the league, and their 29.8% from three ranks 29th. The Pistons force 18.0 turnovers a game, fourth-most. They are 4-1 on the road, and the four wins came by 17, 13, 16 and 33.

This is not a cheap number, even at -108, which amounts to a 51.9% chance. Detroit has won by 11 or more in five of its 10 games, and one public projection gives the Pistons a 72% chance to win, which is cooler than a double-digit spread suggests. In the first meeting Washington won the fourth quarter 24-19, and the 11-point margin would have covered this spread by half a point. Davis is how it stays close. He needed 44 to keep it at 11 in Detroit, though, and he played 34 minutes last night.

Cunningham rebounds less when the Pistons win big, mostly because he plays less. In Detroit's five double-digit wins he played 30, 33, 28, 27 and 27 minutes and had 2, 8, 5, 5 and 3 rebounds. In the other five games he played 35 to 40 minutes and had 4, 9, 5, 7 and 4. That's seven of 10 under this number overall and four of five in the double-digit wins. The exception, the 8 at Philadelphia, came with Ausar Thompson out.

Duren's injury should have sent more rebounds Cunningham's way, and at first it did: he had 8 and 9 in the first two games Duren missed. In the six games since, he has had 5, 5, 5, 7, 4 and 3. Thompson has averaged 9.3 rebounds over those six, and John Collins and Paul Reed each had 10 in the first meeting.

There are rebounds to be had against Washington. Its opponents collect 47.6 a game, tied for third-most in the league. Detroit had 45 three nights ago, and three were Cunningham's.

At -121 the implied probability is 54.8%. Last season Cunningham stayed under 5.5 in 34 of 64 regular-season games, about that rate, so the score is what makes this a bet. When he played 33 minutes or fewer last season, he stayed under in 15 of 22. If Detroit is up double digits in the fourth quarter, he sits. He went over in two of the five games this season in which he played at least 35 minutes, so a close game is the risk.