Fact checked at 7:22 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026Odds as of 6:21 AM ET, Nov 12, 2026
Minnesota is 5-2 without Anthony Edwards, who had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee two weeks ago, and defense is how it got there. The Timberwolves (8-3) allow 106.1 points per 100 possessions, tied for the best mark in the league, and none of their last four opponents has reached 110. Tonight at 8:00 PM ET they host Dallas (7-4) at Target Center. The Mavericks have won three straight, the last a 125-122 win over Indiana in which Cooper Flagg scored 43 and Kyrie Irving 35. The Dallas offense runs through those two. Flagg averages 25.9 points, Irving 22.9, and no other Maverick averages 15. Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo are out for Minnesota, Dereck Lively II is out for Dallas, and Minnesota is a 5.5-point favorite. The two picks share one view of the game: a top defense against a two-man offense ends up in the low 220s, and the Mavericks' fifth starter has another quiet night. Flagg and Irving doing to Minnesota what they did to Indiana would sink the Under.
Mavericks vs. Timberwolves Predictions
Pick #1Under 227.5−110
Dallas has stayed under this number in eight of its 11 games, and in seven of the nine that Flagg and Irving both played. Minnesota has done it in four of seven without Edwards. Those are its last four games, which finished at 212, 224, 224 and 215 points. The three that went over were its first three without him. Two were losses in which Golden State scored 119 and San Antonio 121, and Rudy Gobert missed the San Antonio game with back spasms.
Neither team plays fast. Both average between 99 and 100 possessions a game, within one of the league average. Minnesota has averaged 115.9 points in its seven games without Edwards, and Dallas allows 110.3, ninth-fewest in the league. Four public projections average 223 points, and the highest is 226.6.
This is the popular side. The Under has 82% of the bets and 65% of the money, and its -110 price converts to 52.4%. The Over has 17% of the bets and 34% of the money, so the bigger wagers are on the other side. Dallas is why this can lose. It has scored at least 110 in all nine games Flagg and Irving have played, and the Indiana game went 19.5 points over this total. That was also the only one of Dallas's last eight games to finish above 227.5.
Pick #2Caleb Martin Under 6.5 Points + Rebounds−122
If Flagg and Irving take the shots, somebody in the lineup doesn't, and in Dallas that's Martin. He has started four of the last five games, the last three beside Irving, Flagg, P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, and coach Dusty May put him there to defend. With the other four starters scoring, May said, Dallas needed "someone to kind of give themselves up and connect the group." Over his last four games Martin has taken six shots in 69 minutes and finished with 3, 0, 4 and 3 points plus rebounds.
For the season he has stayed under 6.5 in four of seven games. That's 57.1%, only a little better than the 55.0% built into -122, so the role has to carry the bet. The three misses were 12 and 8 off the bench in his first two games back from a sprained right thumb, when he took 11 shots, and 11 in his first start, with Irving sitting out. He has made five of his 10 threes this season, and May has said there will be games when he "steps up and gives us 15." A night like that beats this.
Irving is not on the latest injury report. Martin is listed as available and plays with a splint on his right thumb. He is projected to start again, but the pick doesn't need that. He came off the bench at San Antonio last week and did not attempt a shot in 20 minutes.
21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
