Picking the Super Bowl Winner - Reviewing odds from Preseason to Now
As the longest NFL season in history, with 284 games played since the regular season kicked off, nears its end, all eyes are now on the Super Bowl.
The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles are set to face off for all the marbles (and the Lombardi Trophy) on Sunday, Feb. 12. At the moment, the Eagles stand as the betting favorite (-1.5) to win the Super Bowl after a dominant performance in the NFC Championship. A bet today on the Eagles to win Super Bowl LVII comes at -118 on FanDuel, meaning a $100 bet would win you $84.75. But what if you put that same $100 down on the Eagles last February immediately after the final whistle of last season’s Super Bowl? Let's take a look back at the preseason odds heading into this season for each team to lift the Lombardi.
Longshots
The Lions, Texans and Jets all shared the title for the team with the longest odds to win it all at +15000 as of last February. However, after trading away Deshaun Watson in the offseason, the Texans claimed the spot all for themselves with odds to win the Super Bowl at +30000 on September 8, when the season officially kicked off. While a $100 bet on the Texans to win the Super Bowl at its peak in the preseason would’ve netted $30,000, a bet on hell to freeze over might’ve had a better chance of cashing out as the Texans were the first team to be eliminated from Super Bowl contention.
Major Disappointments
But while only the most optimistic of bettors were placing bets on the perennial losers like the Texans, it’s safe to say that wasn’t the case for every team that didn’t make the playoffs. Both the Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos were seen as contenders heading into this season with only five teams more favored to win it all, sitting at +1600 odds following last year’s Super Bowl. Once it was assured Aaron Rodgers was returning, the Packers odds improved to fifth best chance at +1200 on the season’s opening day. However, we know now that neither team were to be trusted this season as both missed the playoffs completely.
But no team disappointed futures bettors more than the defending Super Bowl Champion Los Angeles Rams, who while celebrating a win of Super Bowl LVI opened with the third best odds to do the same this year. Instead, the Rams flopped to a 5-12 record and were one of the first five teams to be eliminated from playoff contention.
Miracle Runs
With odds opening at +10000 immediately after the Super Bowl and +15000 as the season kicked off, it feels safe to say there was no bigger surprise this season than the Jacksonville Jaguars. With both the Titans and Colts holding better odds to win it all within the same division, the Jags shocked the world, winning the AFC South and falling just eight points short of the AFC Championship. New York Giants futures bettors found the same odds at the start of the season, falling to the same fate as the Giants also lost to the eventual Super Bowl representatives of their conference after having the worst odds to win the Super Bowl of any NFC East team. While futures bettors of those two teams likely got further than the expected, the exciting ride fell just short of the Super Bowl and thus the super winnings.
Still have a shot
After defeating the Cincinnati Bengals (+1200 odds to win the Super Bowl last February) and San Francisco 49ers (+1600) respectively, the Chiefs and Eagles both arrive to the Super Bowl with one goal in mind: rewarding those with the faith to bet on them in the preseason. Alright, maybe that’s not exactly the direct goal.
However, those that did put their money on one of these teams to win it all could be looking at a nice payout.
Kansas City Chiefs
While the Eagles may be the current favorite to win the Super Bowl now that they’re in it, that wasn’t always the case. The Chiefs opened as the favorites to win it all (tied with the Buffalo Bills) at +750 last February. This means a $100 bet on the Chiefs at that time would net a profit of $750 if they manage to pull it off as opposed to a net profit of $105 on a bet with the same $100 on the current odds at +105 at Draftkings. But while the extra 51 weeks of stress did add a nice chunk of profit, some bettors might’ve done even better. After an offseason that included losing Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins and Tom Brady unretiring and returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Chiefs odds to win it all actually got worse, peaking at +1000 just before the season kicked off. What does that mean for the hypothetical $100 bet? Profit would improve to $1000 on a $100 bet placed on Sept. 8, if the Chiefs hoist end the season hoisting the Lombardi.
Philadelphia Eagles
Although now they are perched as the favorites to win it all, the Eagles were far from favorites at this time last year. In fact, they didn’t even have the best odds in their own division as the Dallas Cowboys were believed to be more likely to be here. The Eagles opened the season at +2500 to win the Super Bowl, before quickly proving they should’ve been amongst the favorites. By Week Two, the Eagles had jumped to fifth best odds at +1400, up from 13th best just one week earlier. Those odds only got better as the season went on as Philadelphia eventually clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC and relatively cruised through the playoffs to the final game. Those that believed from Week One could have themselves a nice payout coming if Philly proves to be special in the big game once again, as a $100 bet at +2500 odds would pay out a profit of $2,500. However, those that committed even earlier could do even better. Following the completion of Super Bowl LVI, the Eagles opened 2022-23 futures at +4000, meaning a bet of $100 placed last spring on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl would pay out a profit of $4000.
Make sure to check in here at OddsCrowd for more analysis, previews and picks for the big game leading up to Super Bowl Sunday.
