Penn vs. Illinois Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/5)

Fact checked at 6:38 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

Odds as of 6:12 AM ET, Nov 5, 2026

No. 3 Illinois hosts Penn at 8:30 PM ET at State Farm Center, on FS1, in a rematch of the NCAA Tournament first-round game the Illini won 105-70 last season on the way to the Final Four. Penn opens its season here. We see a fast game that gets away from the Quakers. Penn likes to run and shoot threes, Illinois is bigger, deeper and already has a game under its belt, and every extra possession should widen the margin and push the score up. We're laying the points with Illinois and taking the Over.

Both rosters look different from that game. Illinois is without David Mirkovic, who is recovering from offseason foot surgery and an emergency appendectomy, and Jake Davis, who is out indefinitely after shoulder surgery; Illinois hasn't said who starts in Davis's place. Penn brings back four starters and seven of its top nine scorers from an 18-12 team that won the Ivy tournament, and the Quakers were picked to win the Ivy League this season. That leaves one Illinois game to go on and none for Penn.

Penn vs. Illinois Predictions

• Pick #1: Illinois -30.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: Over 168.5 (-115)

PICK #1: Illinois -30.5 (-110)

Rebounding decided the tournament game. Illinois won the boards 48-25 in that 105-70 win, with 20 offensive rebounds that turned into 29 second-chance points. Both 7-footers from that night, Tomislav and Zvonimir Ivisic, are back. In the opener against FDU, Illinois won the glass 65-21 and turned it over only seven times in a 120-45 win that set program records for margin (75) and made threes (19).

The new backcourt handled it. Freshmen Quentin Coleman (13 points, 10 rebounds, six assists) and Ethan Brown (12 points, nine rebounds, seven assists) got through their college debuts without a turnover between them, while Andrej Stojakovic and Providence transfer Stefan Vaaks scored 20 apiece. A 30.5-point spread needs the bench too, and Illinois' backups produced: freshman Zavier Zens had 12 points in 24 minutes and freshman Lucas Morillo added nine. FDU is far weaker than Penn, so one game is a hint, not proof.

The two widely used efficiency ratings have Illinois by about 22, so this bet says the size gap is worth more than those numbers allow. The market has moved our way, from around -29.5 when it opened to -30.5. At -110 you're paying for a 52.4% chance. What beats it is a Penn shooting night. TJ Power, a unanimous first-team All-Ivy pick, was held to six points in 30 minutes in the tournament game, Michael Zanoni scored 20 that night, and both are back.

PICK #2: Over 168.5 (-115)

Penn's style is what makes this total reachable. Fran McCaffery's teams like to push the pace, and Penn was one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country last season. Against Illinois that produced 175 points in the tournament, 105 of them after halftime. FDU scored just 45 in the opener and the game still reached 165, because Illinois put up 120 with 19 threes.

Illinois rarely gives a possession away. It had three turnovers in the tournament game and seven against FDU, and the offensive rebounding hands it second shots on top of that. If Penn plays quickly, the Illini get even more trips.

The total opened in the 164.5 to 165.5 range and has climbed to 168.5, and -115 implies a 53.5% chance. The same efficiency ratings project about 161 points, so we're betting that Penn's tempo and Illinois' finishing outrun last season's numbers. The Over loses on a cold opening night for Penn, or on a second half where Illinois' reserves walk the ball up with the result settled.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.