Penn State vs. Pittsburgh Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/8)

Fact checked at 8:16 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Odds as of 7:12 AM ET, Nov 8, 2026

Penn State and Pittsburgh meet for the 150th time tonight at 8:00 PM ET at the Palestra in Philadelphia, the second game of the building's 100th-anniversary doubleheader. Neither team has a home crowd on this neutral floor. Both are 2-0, but all four wins came at home against mid-major opponents, so this is the first power-conference opponent for either side, and every number below comes from just two games. Pitt's roster is almost entirely new (13 newcomers and one returning scholarship player), so last season's 80-46 Pitt win over Penn State says little about tonight. The two games so far show a Pitt team that defends and rebounds, and a Penn State team that can't make threes and needed 43 made free throws to survive its last game. Pitt should win a grinding game in which Penn State struggles to score from the field, and both picks follow from that.

Penn State vs. Pittsburgh Predictions

• Pick #1: Pittsburgh -2.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Under 154.5 (-105)

PICK #1: Pittsburgh -2.5 (-105)

Pitt's second half against Buffalo is the best stretch either team has played. Down 45-32 at halftime, the Panthers outscored the Bulls 48-16 after the break, held them to 3-of-24 shooting from the field and 1-of-17 from three, and won the rebounding 32-11. Baye Ndongo finished with 23 points and 21 rebounds, nine of them offensive. Freshman Chase Foster has scored 23 and 20 off the bench, and Naithan George is averaging 7.5 assists against 1.5 turnovers. Opponents have gone 16-of-56 from three against Pitt in its two games.

Penn State's trouble is on the other end. It led Chattanooga 54-31 at halftime, then gave up 62 points in the second half and held on 97-93. The Mocs scored 42 points in the paint even though Penn State often used lineups with a size advantage. "I didn't think we guarded the ball well today," Mike Rhoades said afterward. Looking ahead to this game, he said his team "saw some stuff that won't be good enough to beat a team like Pitt moving forward." The Nittany Lions are 10-of-42 from three, and bench guard Roberts Blums is expected to miss this game with a broken finger. Rhoades said Blums will be out a "couple weeks" but will try to return sooner.

At least one public power rating has Pitt by 3.5, a point more than this line, and Pitt won its two games by 38 and 19. The -105 price implies a 51.2% chance. Penn State's free-throw volume is what could beat this: the Nittany Lions have made 64 of 78 at the line. Pitt also fell behind by 15 against Buffalo before it came back. Each team used the same starting five in both games, and the same groups figure to start again tonight.

PICK #2: Under 154.5 (-105)

Penn State's 97 points a game looks like trouble for an Under until you see where the points came from. Against Chattanooga the Nittany Lions went 43-of-49 at the line after the Mocs were called for 33 fouls, so nearly half of their 97 points were free throws. They went 6-of-23 from three, and starting wing Brant Byers missed all seven of his attempts. Over two games they are 10-of-42 from deep, and Blums, a Davidson transfer who shot 40 percent from three there last season, is likely to sit.

Pitt's defense does the rest. The Panthers have allowed 57 and 61 points, and their two games finished with combined scores of 152 and 141. Penn State's 97-57 opener against Canisius totaled 154, also under this number. Only the Chattanooga game went over, and it took 43 made free throws to get there.

The Under at -105 works out to 51.2%. Projections that land over the total rely on Penn State's scoring average, and one free-throw night inflates it. The whistle is the danger. Buffalo was also called for 33 fouls against Pitt, and Penn State has shot 78 free throws in two games to Pitt's 73. If tonight is called that tightly, free points on both ends can push this over.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.