Penguins vs. Avalanche Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/16)

Fact checked at 9:15 AM ET, Oct 16, 2026

Odds as of Oct 16, 7:04 AM ET

Colorado is tied with Edmonton for the league lead in scoring through seven games. The Avalanche (4-2-1) have 31 goals, 4.43 a game, and they take 30.6 shots a night, sixth in the NHL. Pittsburgh (3-3-1) scores 3.57 a game, and both teams have allowed 3.14. Both of last season's meetings, in March, went over 6.5: 7-2 Pittsburgh in Denver and 6-2 Colorado in Pittsburgh.

Colorado is -220 on the moneyline, Pittsburgh is +180 and the puck line is Avalanche -1.5 (+113). The total sits at 6.5, with the Over at -120 after opening at -111.

The schedule works against Colorado. This is its third game in four nights after a home-and-home with Dallas, a 3-2 win on Tuesday and a 3-2 shootout loss on Wednesday. Pittsburgh has had two days off since losing 5-3 in Chicago on Tuesday, a game in which Sidney Crosby scored his first two goals of the season, and it plays again Saturday in Las Vegas.

Neither starting goalie is confirmed. Mackenzie Blackwood is expected for Colorado. Pittsburgh has been alternating Arturs Silovs and Sergei Murashov, who started in Chicago, and reports disagree on who gets Friday.

Puck drop is 9:00 PM ET Friday at Ball Arena in Denver, streaming on ESPN+ and televised on Altitude Sports and KTVD. Colorado's attack should run this game, with Nathan MacKinnon firing away and the scoreboard getting past 6.5.

Penguins vs. Avalanche Predictions

• Pick #1: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-140)
• Pick #2: Over 6.5 (-120)

PICK #1: Nathan MacKinnon Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (-140)

MacKinnon put 350 shots on goal in 80 games last season, 4.4 a game, and got to four or more in 52 of them, 65%. Through seven games this season he has 29 shots and four or more in four of them: eight against Los Angeles, four against St. Louis, eight against Toronto and four in Wednesday's shootout loss to Dallas. A -140 price works out to 58.3%, which is lower than his rate over a full season.

He plays a lot, too. He averages 20:36 a night and played 25:22 on Wednesday, his heaviest workload of the season. That night he centered Artturi Lehkonen and Nazem Kadri on the top line and ran the first power-play unit with Kadri, Martin Necas, Cale Makar and T.J. Hughes, with Makar back after missing Tuesday's game.

Pittsburgh allows 28.3 shots a game, 10th-most in the league, so it isn't a team that smothers volume. He does have quiet nights: one shot at Winnipeg and two each in Calgary and in Tuesday's game in Dallas. A third game in four nights could cost the top line some jump.

PICK #2: Over 6.5 (-120)

The Avalanche have put up eight goals against Los Angeles, six against St. Louis and seven in Calgary. Their seven games have finished with 12, 7, 5, 10, 9, 5 and 5 total goals, four of them over 6.5. Pittsburgh's have gone 7, 11, 5, 8, 5, 3 and 8, also four overs, and the Penguins gave up five in two of their last four, at Washington and in Chicago. Add last season's nine- and eight-goal meetings and this total looks a little low.

The goaltending doesn't argue otherwise. Blackwood has an .879 save percentage in five starts, and Scott Wedgewood is at .902 in two if Colorado turns to him. Silovs is at .885. Murashov has the best mark of the four at .911, so a Murashov start makes the Over a tougher bet.

At -120, the Over implies 54.5%. Ninety-four percent of the money on the total is on the Over against 75% of the tickets, and the price has climbed from -111 while the number stayed at 6.5.

The worry is Colorado's legs. Its last two games, both against Dallas, ended with five goals each, and a tired home team can settle for a tight game. Pittsburgh has also killed 89.5% of opponents' power plays.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.