Patriots vs Ravens NFL Week 16 SNF Best Picks

Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season wraps up with a marquee Sunday night matchup featuring two AFC teams heading in very different directions. The New England Patriots travel to Baltimore to take on the Ravens under the primetime lights, with major playoff implications on both sides.

New England enters this game at 11–3, sitting atop the conference in what has been a remarkable first season under head coach Mike Vrabel. Second-year quarterback Drake Maye has taken a massive leap forward, firmly placing himself in the MVP conversation while guiding one of the most balanced teams in football. That said, the Patriots are coming off a tough loss to the Bills and will look to bounce back in a hostile road environment.

Baltimore, meanwhile, sits at 7-7 and is fighting to stay alive in the AFC North race, trailing Pittsburgh by one game in the loss column. It’s been a turbulent season for the Ravens; QB Lamar Jackson missed time earlier in the year and hasn’t quite looked like his usual dynamic self since returning. RB Derrick Henry has shown flashes, but there are signs that the workload and mileage may finally be catching up to him.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 pm ET on NBC, with Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth on the call. With New England trying to solidify its grip on the top seed and Baltimore desperately clinging to playoff hopes, this Sunday night showdown has all the makings of a tense, physical battle.

Let’s break down the matchup and highlight three betting angles worth considering

Patriots vs Ravens SNF Predictions

• PICK #1: New England Patriots +3 (-110) Click Here to Bet
• PICK #2: Under 48.5 Total Points (-110) Click Here to Bet
• PICK #3: Derrick Henry (BAL) Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (-109) Click Here to Bet



PICK #1: New England Patriots +3 (-110) Click Here to Bet

Getting points with this Patriots team feels hard to pass up right now. Mike Vrabel has quickly built a disciplined, physical group that travels well and Drake Maye has shown poise well beyond his years. Even in last week’s loss to Buffalo, New England was up 21-3 before ultimately losing 35-31.

Baltimore, on the other hand, has been inconsistent all season. The Ravens are still dangerous, but the offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive, ranking 20th in EPA per play this season after ranking first last year. That has made long drives harder to come by. With Lamar Jackson not fully resembling his peak form and the run game no longer automatic, this feels like a spot in which the Patriots can control the tempo.

In a game that projects to be tight throughout, taking the field goal with the more stable and complete team makes sense. New England doesn’t need to dominate, it just needs to keep it close and the Pats are built to do exactly that.

PICK #2: Under 48.5 Total Points (-110) Click Here to Bet

This matchup sets up well for a lower-scoring affair. New England’s defense has been one of the most consistent units in the league, especially against the run, allowing the second-fewest yards to running backs. The Patriots are comfortable forcing teams to sustain long drives, which naturally bleeds clock and limits possessions.

Baltimore’s defense has had its ups and downs, but at home and with their season on the line, expect a focused effort to slow down Drake Maye and keep things in front of them. That likely means fewer deep shots and more methodical drives from the Patriots. Plus, the Ravens offense has failed to score more than 24 points in any game since November 9th.

With both teams leaning on defense, ball control and physicality, this game feels more like a grind than a shootout. A score somewhere in the range of 23-20 or 24-21 fits the profile, making the Under an appealing play.

PICK #3: Derrick Henry Under 78.5 Rushing Yards (-109) Click Here to Bet

This is a tough matchup for Derrick Henry and the numbers back it up. The Patriots have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs this season, consistently winning at the line of scrimmage and tackling well at the second level.

There have also been noticeable signs that Henry isn’t quite the same workload-dominating force he once was. He has been given fewer than 12 carries in two of his last three games, and in this game, there is a good chance the Ravens are trailing at some point. That would likely game script Henry out because he does not play on a lot of third downs or in passing situations.

Against a disciplined Patriots front that rarely gives up chunk runs, Henry will likely have to work hard for every yard. Unless he breaks a long run early, which is something New England has been excellent at preventing, it’s hard to see him clearing this number. Under 78.5 rushing yards is a strong look in what should be a physical, tightly-contested game.