Patriots vs Jets NFL Week 3 TNF Picks
Aaron Rodgers is back in a primetime slot, and he can only hope that it goes better than his last two such appearances. Rodgers infamously suffered a torn Achilles’ on Monday Night Football in Week 1 of last year, and in the New York Jets’ 2024 opener, they lost at the San Francisco 49ers 32-19 – also on Monday Night Football. On the bright side for Rodgers and company, they responded with a 24-17 victory over the Tennessee Titans this past weekend. Up next for them on Thursday is an AFC East showdown against the New England Patriots, who are also 1-1. This Week 3 instalment of Thursday Night Football is set for 8:15 pm ET on Prime Video. Let’s take a look at the Patriots vs Jets best bets to be made.
Predictions
Pick #1 – Patriots +6.5 over Jets (-110)
Pick #2 – Under 37.5 (-110)
Pick #3 – Rhamondre Stevenson Over 67.5 rushing yards (-114)
PICK #1: Pats getting too many points in what could be a defensive struggle
One year later, the Jets are off to a much better start – but that’s not saying a lot. In fact, basically all it says is that their quarterback isn’t out for the season. Rodgers has remained mostly upright through two weeks, but it hasn’t been pretty. New York got blown out by San Francisco in its opener and then scraped past a mediocre-at-best Tennessee team. Rodgers and company amassed a mere 265 total yards; they might as well have been gift-wrapped the game thanks to a pair of turnovers by Will Levis and a moribund Titans offense.
New England lost to the Seattle Seahawks this past weekend, but it was by three points in overtime. Don’t forget that the Patriots upset the Cincinnati Bengals on the road in Week 1 – a Cincinnati squad that almost pulled off a road win over the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2. A New England defense that stymied the Bengals from start to finish held the Seahawks to 106 yards and three points during the third and fourth quarters.
The Patriots’ offense does not have to be great on Thursday. It simply has to be decent – and it has been so far. Getting 6.5 points should be more than enough for New England.
PICK #2: Expect offenses to be grounded
Aside from when the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins lock horns, AFC East battles have generally been of the defensive variety in recent times. Thursday’s contest between New England and New York is unlikely to be an exception. Although Rodgers at least has one win under his belt with his new team, he has been far from spectacular. In fact, even in a win over Tennessee he wasn’t very good. The veteran completed only 18 of 30 passes even though he wasn’t under much pressure from the Titans (two sacks, three quarterback hits).
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots are a run-heavy team. Through two weeks they rank in the top five league-wide in percentage of rushing plays (58) and rushing yards per game (177.5). New England can be expected to keep the ball on the ground against a mediocre New York run defense. That means the clock should keep running and the game will be shortened. All things considered, Under 37.5 looks like a great play.
PICK #3: Rhamondre Stevenson is New England’s workhorse
Patriots QB Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable so far, but he is the essence of a game manager. They aren’t going to let him sling it around 40 times per contest. In fact, through two weeks Brissett is averaging a modest 25.5 pass attempts.
Meanwhile, running back Rhamondre Stevenson got 25 and 21 carries in the first two games. He turned those into 120 and 81 rushing yards, respectively. Now he faces a Jets defense that is giving up 155 rushing yards per game (ninth-most in the NFL) on 4.7 yards per attempt. Stevenson’s strong start to the 2024 campaign has every reason to continue. Look for him to exceed 67.5 yards on the ground.
