Patriots vs. Dolphins Prediction, NFL Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (11/1)

Fact checked at 8:20 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

Odds as of 7:28 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

The Patriots (4-3) visit the Dolphins (1-5) in Miami Gardens for a 4:25 PM ET kickoff on CBS, with rain in the forecast and only three healthy receivers on New England's 53-man roster. We expect a wet, low-scoring game that the Patriots win by more than a touchdown, moving the ball on short throws to their backs and tight ends while Miami's offense can't keep up. That means New England on the spread, the Under and Rhamondre Stevenson's catches.

A.J. Brown (ankle, knee) and TreVeyon Henderson (illness) are out, and Romeo Doubs and Mack Hollins are on injured reserve. Miami is without left guard Kadyn Proctor (concussion). Drake Maye (right shoulder) and Malik Willis (groin) carry no game status and are expected to start.

Patriots vs. Dolphins Predictions

• Pick #1: Patriots -7 (-109)
• Pick #2: Under 43.5 (-113)
• Pick #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions (-156)

PICK #1: Patriots -7 (-109)

Miami has scored 13 or fewer in four of six games and averages 16.3 points, 30th in the league. It did reach 28 in its first win, over the Jets, but Proctor played every snap of that game and every snap this season, and his absence ends a run of six games with the same five starters up front. The Dolphins have run for more than 100 yards in five straight. New England allows 95.3 rushing yards a game.

The Patriots can throw on this defense without Brown. Miami allows a league-worst 116.8 passer rating and 76.6% completions. Maye has 12 touchdown passes and two interceptions in his last four games, and in the 30-24 loss at Chicago, 17 of his 24 completions went to backs and tight ends.

The price implies 52.2%, New England has won by more than 7 in only two of seven games, and its 26-19 win over the Jets would push here. It's 1-3 on the road, though it was an underdog in all four, and its 14 turnovers are second most in the league. Willis, with 223 rushing yards, is the player most able to break this open. The line opened -7.5 and has moved only a half point with Brown and Henderson ruled out. The public agrees, at 66% of the bets and 64% of the money.

PICK #2: Under 43.5 (-113)

The forecast drives this one. The National Weather Service has a 76% chance of rain in the kickoff hour and better than 80% for the next two, with thunder likely, an east wind around 13 mph and gusts in the 20s. A flood watch covers Miami-Dade County, and a local station expects storms to build through the afternoon and stay elevated overnight. The stadium is open-air.

Miami wants to run. New England is living on short passes without its top receivers, with a lead back at 3.7 yards a carry. That adds up to long drives and fewer of them, and something like 24-13 is the game we expect.

The record alone doesn't get there: these teams' games have stayed under 43.5 in 6 of 13, short of the 53.1% that -113 implies, so the weather has to carry this. New England's last four games all cleared the number, at 55, 62, 45 and 54 points, and Miami's last two hit 55 and 53. Rain that comes in bands can miss the stadium, a thunderstorm delay is possible, and that Miami pass defense can make up for a thin receiver room. The Under is also popular, at 75% of the bets and 78% of the money.

PICK #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 2.5 Receptions (-156)

With Henderson out, Stevenson is the back in New England's short passing game. Corey Kiner has two catches all season. Stevenson has 20 on 24 targets and has reached 3 in five of seven games, against the 60.9% that -156 implies.

Week 1 is the closest match, with the same three backs: he played 85% of the snaps and caught 5 of 6 targets. In Chicago he caught 5 for 93. He has played at least 60% of the snaps in four straight games, the club expects the heavy workload to continue, and a checkdown is the easiest throw on a wet field.

Seven games only says so much, and his longer record is weaker. Sharing the backfield with Henderson last season, he reached 3 catches in only 5 of 14 regular-season games, then 3 of 4 in the playoffs. So this is a bet on today's role. He had one catch at 36% of the snaps in Week 2 and none at 60% against the Jets. The game to fear is the 10-7 playoff win at Denver, with 25 carries and no catches, if New England stops throwing to its backs altogether. Most books void the prop if a player sits.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.