Patriots vs. Broncos NFL AFC Championship Picks 

The AFC representative in Super Bowl LX will be determined when the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots this Sunday afternoon. This may be a showdown between the top two seeds in the conference, but the matchup lost a little bit of luster when Denver quarterback Bo Nix suffered an ankle fracture right before Will Lux hit a game-winning field goal against the Bills in the Divisional Round. Can backup Jarrett Stidham step up and lead the Broncos to victory, or will the Patriots restore glory to their franchise by earning another trip to the Super Bowl?

With Sunday’s AFC Championship set for 3:00 pm ET on CBS, it’s time to break down the odds and discuss the best bets to make. 

AFC Championship Predictions 

• PICK #1: New England Patriots -4.5 (-115)
• PICK #2: Under 42.5 Total Points (-110) 
• PICK #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114) 

PICK #1: Patriots -4.5 (-115) vs. Broncos

It goes without saying that Stidham does not inspire a lot of confidence – especially not on the huge stage that is a conference championship game. The former Auburn standout has as many interceptions as touchdown passes (eight apiece) in his six-year professional career, during which he has appeared in only 20 games. His lifetime completion percentage is a mere 59.4%. Stidham needs as much help from the running game as he can get, but he may not get it on Sunday.

J.K. Dobbins has been sidelined by a foot injury since Week 10 and is not expected to play, even though he returned to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday. Now they have to face a New England defense that ranked sixth against the run during the regular season. The Patriots looked very good in the first two rounds, and that momentum should carry them to another Super Bowl berth. 

PICK #2: Under 42.5 Total Points (-110)

A No. 1 seed going up against a No. 2 seed in a conference championship game would normally be appointment television. Outside of Denver and New England, however, this matchup might put football fans to sleep. Two outstanding defenses and one backup quarterback will be on the field on Sunday.

How good are the defenses? In the regular season, they were borderline dominant. Denver ranked No. 1 overall, No. 3 in scoring, No. 2 against the run, No. 7 against the pass, No. 2 in yards per pass attempt allowed, and No. 1 in sacks. New England ranked No. 8 overall, No. 4 in scoring, and No. 6 against the run. The Patriots have been especially impressive so far in the playoffs, reducing the Chargers to a mere three points and forcing five turnovers against the Texans. It's safe to say that we won't see many points on Sunday.

PICK #3: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Stevenson is red hot heading into the AFC Championship. He gained 53 and 60 yards in the Pats’ first two playoff games after wrapping up the regular season with a 131-yard onslaught against the Dolphins. What’s important to note is that Stevenson appears to have cemented himself as New England’s top running back for this postseason run.

Through two games, he has 33 touches (26 carries) and 209 yards from scrimmage. TreVeyon Henderson has 21 touches (21 carriers) and 59 scrimmage yards. It’s not exactly a surprise. Stevenson is a reliable fifth-year veteran who was on the Patriots when they last made the playoffs in 2021. Henderson is an inexperienced rookie. Count on high volume and another productive output for Stevenson on Sunday.