Patriots vs. Bills Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:31 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:48 AM ET

Buffalo is 3-0, New England is 1-2, and Sunday is the first AFC East game of the year for both. The consensus line as of 7:48 AM ET is Bills -7 (-105), with a total of 50 and Buffalo -329 on the moneyline. That spread opened at 3 on Sept. 22. It was 6.5 by Monday, Sept. 28, and 7 by 5:21 AM ET Sunday, so most of the move came after the Patriots lost 35-6 at Jacksonville. Among the 30 teams that have played three games, Buffalo's 33.7 points a game is the most, and New England's 12.0 is tied with Miami for the fewest.

The Patriots' defense has allowed just 17 a game, but it shows up short-handed. Cornerback Christian Gonzalez and tackle Christian Barmore, two of the club's best defenders, were ruled out on Friday's final report, and cornerback Channing Canada was downgraded to out after the team arrived in Buffalo. Six more players are questionable and made the trip: linebacker Christian Elliss, pass rusher Dre'Mont Jones, safety Craig Woodson, tackle Morgan Moses, tight end Eli Raridon and fullback Reggie Gilliam. Drake Maye has no designation and is expected to start, though the club hasn't announced it. On the Buffalo side, cornerback Christian Benford (toe) and running back Ray Davis (hamstring) are questionable, and lineman T.J. Sanders is doubtful. Sanders hasn't played a defensive snap this season.

Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, on CBS. Expect sun or partial sun, upper 60s and little chance of rain. The official forecast has wind at 7 to 8 mph, though one model shows gusts into the low 20s. Inactives come out about 90 minutes before kickoff and aren't posted yet, so both picks are based on the final injury report.

Patriots vs. Bills Predictions

• Pick #1: Mack Hollins Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
• Pick #2: Drake Maye Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-111)

PICK #1: Mack Hollins Over 43.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

A.J. Brown has been on injured reserve since the opener, and Hollins has been New England's most targeted player. He has played 70%, 71% and 76% of the offensive snaps, more than any other Patriots wideout, and has 156 yards on 16 targets: 51 at Seattle, 18 against Pittsburgh and 87 at Jacksonville, where he drew nine of the team's 30 targets.

That works out to about a quarter of the offense's 631 passing yards. Give him a quarter of the 231.5 Maye is posted for and you get roughly 57. Give him a quarter of Maye's actual 195-yard average and it's still about 48. New England has thrown more in its losses, too: 33 passes in the close game at Seattle, 31 at Jacksonville, 22 in the win over Pittsburgh. Hollins is listed to start and has no injury designation.

Buffalo's pass defense is the other half of this. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown for 275.7 yards a game against the Bills, the fifth most of the 30 teams with three games played. Some of that is volume, since Houston, Detroit and the Chargers threw 38, 38 and 34 times (about 37 a game) and New England averages 27. But the Bills have still allowed about 7.5 yards a throw, and each of those opponents' top receivers got to 75: Nico Collins had 75, Amon-Ra St. Brown 142 and Tre' Harris 76. Benford, Buffalo's top corner, didn't practice all week. Linebacker Terrel Bernard (knee) sat out Friday's practice and has no game status.

-114 implies a 53.3% chance, and the risks are real. Maye is averaging only 195 yards, his protection is shaky, and Hollins had two targets for 18 yards against Pittsburgh. A blowout could also hand the late snaps to the backup. At Jacksonville, Tommy DeVito took 12 snaps and threw five passes, and a receiver threw one. If you want a different angle, Hollins Over 3.5 receptions (-121) works. Romeo Doubs Over 38.5 (-115) is the same idea on a thinner record: 0, 96 and 49 yards.

PICK #2: Drake Maye Under 231.5 Passing Yards (-111)

Maye hasn't hit this number yet. He threw for 178 at Seattle, 208 against Pittsburgh and 199 at Jacksonville.

He averages about 27 attempts, and the game where he threw the most, 33 at Seattle, gave him his lowest total. Run 27 attempts through the 7.5 yards a throw Buffalo has allowed and you land around 203. The quarterbacks who piled up yards on the Bills did it with volume: C.J. Stroud threw for 274 on 38 attempts and Jared Goff for 327 on 38. Justin Herbert threw 34 times and got 226. For Maye to get there, he'd need a lot more throws than he's been making, and he'd be doing it without Brown, with third-stringer Ben Brown at right guard and Moses questionable at right tackle, against a defense with nine sacks. Maye has been sacked nine times himself.

The score doesn't hurt the Under much. New England has thrown between 22 and 33 times in each game. If Buffalo pulls away, the backup can take over late, as DeVito did at Jacksonville, and none of his yards count for Maye. At -111 the price implies 52.6%, and I think the Under is better than that.

What would beat it is a shootout where New England throws 35 times or more and Benford doesn't play. These two picks don't cancel each other out. At his usual share, Hollins clears 43.5 once the passing game reaches about 176 yards, and all three of Maye's games finished between 176 and 231.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.