Panthers vs. Sabres Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/12)

Fact checked at 8:53 AM ET, Oct 12, 2026

Odds as of Oct 12, 8:11 AM ET

The Sabres get pucks to the net. They take 26.4 shots a game and allow 21.2, the fewest in the league, and they still scored one goal total in consecutive losses to Dallas (4-0) and Utah (4-1). Tage Thompson's answer after Saturday's game was to "throw pucks and get bodies there and just get ugly." We're taking him at his word. Both picks here ride on Buffalo's top center and top defenseman shooting a lot in the last game of a five-game homestand.

Florida (2-1-2) is playing without Aleksander Barkov (knee, out six to eight weeks) and Brad Marchand (lower body, about six weeks) and has scored 1.8 goals a game, 30th of 32 teams. What the Panthers still do well is keep shots down. They allow 23.2 a game, tied for fifth-fewest, and the Sabres' own preview credits them with some of the league's best five-on-five possession numbers. Buffalo (2-3-0) has scored 2.2 a game and allowed 3.8.

The moneyline is a coin flip at -110 each way, and the total has dropped from 6.5 to 6. Jacob Markstrom is expected for Florida. Colten Ellis had a net to himself at Sunday's practice, which the Sabres read as a likely start; neither goalie is confirmed. Both teams play again Tuesday, Florida at Columbus and Buffalo at Montreal.

Puck drop is 1:00 PM ET at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, on MSG in the Sabres' market, Scripps Sports in Florida's and ESPN+ out of market.

Panthers vs. Sabres Predictions

• Pick #1: Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110)
• Pick #2: Rasmus Dahlin Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)

PICK #1: Tage Thompson Over 3.5 Shots on Goal (+110)

Five games, five Overs. Thompson has put 6, 6, 9, 4 and 4 shots on net against Utah, Dallas, Minnesota, Chicago and Columbus, an average of 5.8, and two of those games were the losses where Buffalo scored once. The shots keep coming whether or not anything goes in. He has taken 29 of the team's 132, played 19:08 to 20:23 a night, has been on the first power-play unit, and went back to centering Peyton Krebs and Josh Doan at Sunday's practice.

The market disagrees, with the Under at -150. Florida's shot suppression is a fair reason, and two of his games stopped at exactly four, so he has no cushion. Still, +110 implies only 47.6% for a shooter who hasn't dipped below four yet, and we'll take that side.

PICK #2: Rasmus Dahlin Over 2.5 Shots on Goal (-105)

Dahlin plays 25:23 to 29:15 a night and works the point on the first power play. His shot counts read 4, 1, 3, 3 and 4, four Overs in five, with the lone miss a one-shot night in the 4-0 loss to Dallas.

At -105 the implied chance is 51.2%, with the Under at -130. Buffalo has outshot opponents by about five a game, and the longer the Sabres hold Florida in its own end, the more pucks come back to Dahlin at the blue line. That is also how these two picks lose together: if Florida keeps Buffalo from setting up in its zone, Thompson and Dahlin both come up short.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.