Panthers vs. Kings Prediction, NHL Odds & Best Bets (10/6)

Fact checked at 11:40 AM ET, Oct 6, 2026

Odds as of Oct 6, 11:37 AM ET

The Kings finally get a home game, and the visitor is a Florida team that hasn't seen its own building since the season started. Los Angeles is 0-1-1 after losing 8-4 at Colorado and 5-4 in overtime at San Jose. Florida is 1-0-2. All three of its games went to overtime, and tonight ends a four-game trip that began in Raleigh on Sept. 29 and ran through San Jose and Anaheim.

Aleksander Barkov won't play. The Panthers' captain was hurt in San Jose on Oct. 1 and went on long-term injured reserve, which rules him out for at least 10 games and 24 days. He saw doctors in South Florida on Monday, and the club still had no timeline late Tuesday morning; its next update was due after the morning skate. Defenseman Aaron Ekblad is out too. He went home for a personal matter and will not play tonight, coach Paul Maurice said Sunday. Lars Eller centered the top line with Brady Tkachuk and Sam Reinhart in Anaheim on Sunday; tonight's lines have not been posted.

Florida is still a small favorite. The consensus moneyline is Panthers -121, Kings +101, with the total at 5.5, and it has barely budged since opening on Oct. 3 at -122 and +102. Jacob Markstrom and Darcy Kuemper are the expected goalies. Neither had been confirmed as of this morning.

Puck drop is 10:00 PM ET Tuesday at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, on ESPN.

Panthers vs. Kings Predictions

• Pick #1: Kings Moneyline (+101)
• Pick #2: Over 5.5 (-130)

PICK #1: Kings Moneyline (+101)

Bet this only if Kuemper starts, and know going in that it's a close call. The consensus +101 implies a 49.8% chance, so Los Angeles has to be a true coin flip or better for the bet to pay. Shop for it, too: as of this morning one major book had the Kings at +102, and at least one other had them at -102. Below even money, pass.

The argument starts in the Kings' net, where the goalies have stopped just 41 of 54 shots in two games. Kuemper gave up eight goals on 29 shots in Denver. Over 50 starts last season he stopped 89.1% of what he faced, a modest number, but nowhere near as bad as opening night. The skaters have done their part: Los Angeles outshot Colorado 31-29 and San Jose 35-25, 66 shots to 54 in all, and scored four goals in each game. Be careful with that shot edge, though. The Kings were behind for most of both nights, and a team chasing the score usually ends up shooting more, so some of it may be the scoreboard talking. The five-on-five numbers point the same way, on two games of evidence. One public expected-goals model gives the Kings 56.6% of the expected goals at five-on-five, and they have still been outscored 7-3 there because their goalies have allowed seven goals on shots worth about 3.6. The top line of Artemi Panarin, Quinton Byfield and Adrian Kempe did score three of the four goals in San Jose, where the power play went 2-for-3.

Florida, meanwhile, shows up with less than it left home with. The Panthers have six goals in three games and a power play that is 1-for-17. Barkov has missed the last game and a half, Ekblad is gone as well, and Brady Tkachuk and Reinhart, Barkov's linemates when the trip began, are still looking for their first points. Brad Marchand came back Sunday from offseason surgery and scored the tying goal, then said his timing and conditioning aren't there yet. This is the Panthers' fourth road game in eight days and their fourth straight home opener as the visitor. The Kings have had two days off since Saturday.

Don't expect the betting to break the tie. As of this morning, seven in ten moneyline bets were on Florida, but the money was split almost evenly: 51% on the Kings, 48% on the Panthers. And the price hasn't moved in three days, which means the market has known about Barkov all along and still prefers Florida.

There is plenty on the other side. Markstrom has stopped 32 of 35 shots in his two starts. The Kings have given up five power-play goals on seven chances, so the penalty kill is as much to blame as the goalies. Florida hasn't lost in regulation, has its own shot edge, 77-67 over three games, and has been the better five-on-five team so far: the same model gives it 66.2% of the expected goals over its three games, the best share in the league through the first week. Its penalty kill has leaked too (Anaheim scored on three of four chances Sunday), so special teams could swing this either way. If Anton Forsberg, who allowed five goals on 25 shots in San Jose, gets the net instead of Kuemper, pass. Bettors who want a cushion can take Kings +1.5, but -250 is too much to pay for it.

PICK #2: Over 5.5 (-130)

Penalties are the reason to look at the total. Florida's three games have had 31 power plays, 17 for the Panthers and 14 against, and neither penalty kill has held up. The Kings have allowed five goals on seven chances, the worst rate in the league. Florida has allowed four on 14. The Panthers' power play is 1-for-17, and it now gets the league's leakiest penalty kill; the Kings' own power play is 2-for-7 with Panarin on it.

The goalies help. Neither expected starter was good last season: Markstrom stopped 88.3% of the shots he faced in 44 games for New Jersey, and Kuemper stopped 89.1% in 50 starts for the Kings. Florida is also playing without its best defensive forward in Barkov and a top-four defenseman in Ekblad. Its offense has been better than six goals suggests, too. At five-on-five the Panthers have scored three times on chances one public model values at about five goals. The Kings' two games, for what it's worth, produced 12 and 9 goals.

We'd rank this second and bet it smaller. The price is fair and no better: -130 implies a 56.5% chance, the total opened at 5.5 with the Over at -131 and hasn't moved, and the public got here first. As of this morning, 73% of the bets and 78% of the money on the total were on the Over. A few books deal 6 at close to even money, which is the same opinion at a different number.

It can lose quietly. Florida's five-on-five play has been tight: its three games were 0-0, 3-3 and 2-2 after regulation and finished with 1, 7 and 5 goals, so two of the three stayed under this number. Markstrom has allowed three goals in two starts. And the Kings' big totals owe a lot to goaltending that should improve, which is the same improvement the first pick is counting on.

So the two bets overlap. Both need the Kings to keep scoring, and a 4-3 Kings win cashes both. On Kuemper they pull in different directions, since the moneyline wants him sharp and the Over is helped if he isn't. Size them as related bets.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.