Padres vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB NLDS Game 1 Odds & Best Bets (10/3)

Fact checked at 9:30 AM ET, Oct 3, 2026

Odds as of Oct 3, 6:24 AM ET

Milwaukee won a franchise-record 103 games, locked up the No. 1 overall seed and got the week off. San Diego (91-71) took the long way and made it look short, sweeping the Cubs 8-0 and 4-1 in the Wild Card Series. On paper, Game 1 of this best-of-five is a mismatch: Jacob Misiorowski, 16-5 with a 1.80 ERA and 252 strikeouts, against Robbie Ray, the lefty San Diego named on Friday. Ray finished at 3.59 for the season, but that number is 5.02 over nine starts since the Padres got him at the trade deadline.

The market has Milwaukee -201 and San Diego +167. That's drifted toward the Padres from an opener around -226 early Thursday. San Diego won four of the six regular-season meetings, including a three-game sweep in August. The Brewers are +107 on the 1.5-run line, and the total is 7, where it opened. Postseason rosters are due Saturday morning and neither lineup is posted. Milwaukee third baseman Joey Ortiz, slowed by abdominal and right knee injuries, was "progressing in the right direction" on Friday, per manager Pat Murphy. American Family Field has a retractable roof; outside, it's a cool evening after a high near 63, with only a chance of sprinkles late at night.

First pitch is Saturday at 8:30 PM ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee, on FS1.

Padres vs. Brewers Predictions

• Pick #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-150)
• Pick #2: Brewers -1.5 (+107)
• Pick #3: Brice Turang Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112)

PICK #1: Jacob Misiorowski Under 1.5 Earned Runs (-150)

Twenty of 30. That's how many of his starts Misiorowski finished with one earned run or none, a 67% rate, while -150 implies only 60%. Trust the season over the last month.

He allowed 35 earned runs in 174 2/3 innings and led the majors in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP (0.80) and opponents' average (.157). His one look at San Diego, May 13 in Milwaukee, went seven innings with no earned runs and 10 strikeouts. The Padres scored 722 runs this year, middle of the pack; Milwaukee scored 832. He's on five days' rest.

The recent run looks even better, and that's partly a mirage. His last five starts, newest first: 0, 0, 0, 1 and 5 earned runs, the 5 coming Sept. 2. But two of those Unders were short outings, 3 innings on 44 pitches Sept. 20 and 5 1/3 on 68 pitches Sept. 27. Early exits flatter the line, so lean on the full-season rate instead.

San Diego is the worry. The Padres went 18-6 in September and have hit in bunches for two weeks; Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado both went deep in the Wild Card opener. This is also Misiorowski's first postseason start; last October he worked out of the bullpen. At -150 as of 6:27 AM ET it isn't cheap, and with no Padres lineup posted, the hitters he faces are still a guess. If Milwaukee switches starters, the pick is off.

Expecting a short night? Misiorowski Under 17.5 Outs (-112) covers that.

Be aware this and the run line below both lean on Misiorowski. If San Diego gets to him early, both go down.

PICK #2: Brewers -1.5 (+107)

Laying -201 on the moneyline is too steep, so take Milwaukee at plus money on the run line, +107 as of 6:24 AM ET.

The pitching gap is the reason. Misiorowski's 1.80 ERA over 174 2/3 innings is nearly two runs better than Ray's 3.59, and more than three better than Ray's 5.02 as a Padre. The staff behind him allowed 618 runs, fourth-fewest in the majors. Milwaukee also finished hot: five straight wins to end an 18-6 September, four of those five by two runs or more. The hitters have had five days off. First baseman Andrew Vaughn, who landed on the injured list with flu-like symptoms, took live at-bats this week and was activated Friday.

There's plenty pushing back. San Diego won four of six against Milwaukee and swept the August series, and Ray owns a 2.82 career ERA against the Brewers. The price has lengthened from about -226 to -201 since Thursday. Handedness matters here too: Milwaukee hit .245 against lefties and .264 against righties, and the club site has the Brewers first in the majors in wRC+ against right-handers but 13th against lefties. Christian Yelich and Sal Frelick could begin the game on the bench because of it. The Padres have won each of Ray's last three starts. Give them a late lead and Mason Miller (38 saves, 1.67 ERA) and Adrian Morejon take over. Then there's rust. Murphy acknowledged this week that real at-bats can't be recreated in workouts.

And it still has to be a two-run win. If you only want the Brewers to win, the moneyline (-201) is the alternative.

Both this and the Misiorowski Under hang mostly on that 1.80 ERA, so one bad night from him sinks the pair. The other half of this bet, Milwaukee's hitters getting to Ray, is shared with Turang below.

PICK #3: Brice Turang Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-112)

Two of anything (hits, runs and RBIs in any mix) cashes this, and Turang should get chances. He bats second for the best on-base team in baseball, facing a lefty who walks people. The price is -112 as of 6:27 AM ET.

Ray has walked 84 batters in 165 2/3 innings this season, 27 of them in 43 innings with San Diego. Milwaukee's .341 on-base percentage led the majors. Turang himself finished on a tear: 2, 4, 8, 1 and 5 in hits plus runs plus RBIs over the last five regular-season games (Sept. 23-27), over 1.5 in four of them. The club says his .361 average and .475 on-base percentage led the majors in September, and he finished with 102 runs and 100 RBIs. He's second in the club's projected lineup. And Padres manager Craig Stammen didn't exactly promise Ray a long leash: "As far as how far he goes or how long, he'll determine a lot of that, how well he pitches."

The trouble is the lefty-on-lefty matchup. Turang hits left-handed, and Milwaukee's numbers against lefties are worse than against righties. San Diego has won each of Ray's last three starts, and the club says he's been mostly sharp the past couple of weeks. If Ray does leave early, the relief comes from a bullpen that led the majors in expected ERA. The five-game hot streak is short, too, and it ended before a five-day layoff. With no lineup posted, his spot in the order is a projection; drop him lower and the case gets thinner.

If you want a different Brewers bat, William Contreras Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-109) works too. The club says he led the majors with 24 RBIs in September.

This and the run line both need Milwaukee to hit Ray, and both lose if he shuts them down. The difference: Turang can still cash in a Brewers loss, and Misiorowski's night doesn't decide it.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.