Packers vs Lions NFL Week 14 TNF picks
The NFL’s marquee matchup this week takes place tomorrow night at Ford Field as the Detroit Lions host the Green Bay Packers in an NFC North clash. The 11-1 Lions defeated Green Bay at Lambeau Field last month, 24-14, and currently hold a two-game lead over the 9-3 Packers, with 10-2 Minnesota in between in a stacked division.
Detroit is following up on last year’s magical run to the NFC Championship game with a season for the ages. The Lions are tied for the best record in franchise history after 12 games, and their current 10-game win streak has tied a 90-year-old team record. All of that has overshadowed the incredible run the Packers have been on. Green Bay has won three straight and 7-of-8 overall, easily dispatching the San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins the past two weeks.
This game has critical division and wild card implications for both squads. Let’s get into our predictions and best bets for this TNF contest.
Packers vs Lions Predictions
Pick #1: Detroit Lions -3 (-118) vs Green Bay Packers
Pick #2: Under 51.5 (-112)
Pick #3: Josh Jacobs 80+ Rushing Yards (+145)
Pick #1: Lions -3 (-118) vs Packers
Detroit is 5-1 at home this season, winning four straight since dropping its only game of the year to Tampa Bay in Week 2, 20-16. Those four wins have come by an average of 25 points. Drubbings of Tennessee and Jacksonville admittedly skew those numbers, as the Lions just held off the Bears last week.
Jared Goff went 21-for-34 for 221 yards and threw two touchdown passes to Sam LaPorta. He has tossed six touchdowns and no interceptions in the three games since his five-interception clunker against the Houston Texans. Meanwhile, the two-headed running back monster of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery continues to propel the team.
Meanwhile, Jordan Love was 21-for-28 for 274 yards and two touchdowns in a 30-17 victory over the Dolphins last week. He does have 11 interceptions on the season, tied for third-worst in the league, but he has been clean for the past two weeks.
It was a defensive affair when the two met in Green Bay last month. Goff threw for just 145 yards, although the Gibbs/Montgomery duo did produce 138 yards and a touchdown rushing. Love threw for 273 yards but had an interception and fumbled the ball three times.
Green Bay is 6-6 against the spread this season, including 2-3 ATS on the road. The team is 4-1 in road games and 7-3 in its last 10 matchups against Top-10 scoring defenses. The Lions are 7-2 against the spread in their previous 10 games as the favorite and are 9-3 ATS overall this season, including 4-2 ATS at home.
We see Detroit continuing their magical run while continuing to overcome their continued losses on the defensive side of the ball. Look for the Lions to win this game and cover the three-point spread.
Pick #2: Under 51.5 (-112)
These two teams put the relative clamps on each other last month, combining for 38 points. Detroit is third in the league in points allowed this season with 16.9. Green Bay is not too far behind, sitting 10th in the league at 20 points allowed per contest. Although both offenses have also been strong this year, our bet is that the defenses will do just enough to contain the offenses.
Green Bay has played to the Under in four of its last six games. The Packers have played in just one game where the total has surpassed 51.5 points in the past two months, and that came at Jacksonville in October. The Lions, similarly, have only surpassed 51.5 total points once in the past five weeks, again against Jacksonville.
Both teams are 5-6-1 O/U this season, so we will roll with a recency bias and the two teams’ performance against each other last month and take the Under.
Pick #3: Josh Jacobs 80+ Rushing Yards (+145)
Fans of the not-quite-extinct running back will love this contest. To counter the Lions’ prominent Gibbs/Montgomery duo, the Packers offer Josh Jacobs, who is third in the league with 987 yards on the ground, 14 ahead of Gibbs. The sixth-year man out of Alabama has been everything Green Bay asked for after signing him from Las Vegas this past offseason.
Jacobs surpassed 1,000 yards three times with the Raiders and should cross that threshold tomorrow night. He rushed for 95 yards against the Lions last month and should be motivated coming off a tame 47-yard performance Thanksgiving night against the Dolphins.
Look for Jacobs to rush for more than 80 yards for the second time against the Packers this season and the fourth time in his past six games overall.
