Packers vs Eagles NFL Super Wild Card Weekend picks
The No. 7 seed Green Bay Packers travel to Philadelphia to take on the second-seeded Eagles in an NFL Wild Card matchup on Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field at 4:30 pm ET.
This is the second straight year that Green Bay is the NFC’s No. 7 seed, and the Packers will be hoping for a similar result. Last year, the team traveled to Dallas and knocked off the NFC East champion Cowboys. The Packers closed the regular season losing two straight and 3-of-5, but finished 11-6 overall. This is the fifth time Green Bay has reached the postseason in coach Matt LaFleur’s six seasons.
The Eagles finished 14-3 and won the NFC East for the second time in three years. Philadelphia has reached the playoffs in each of its four seasons under head coach Nick Sirianni.
Let’s get into our Packers vs Eagles predictions and best bets for this divisional contest.
Packers vs Eagles Predictions
Pick #1: Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 (-115)
Pick #2: Under 45.5 (-105)
Pick #3: Saquon Barkley Over 101.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
See the latest odds, trends and line movements here.
Pick #1: Eagles -4.5 over Packers (-115)
Thanks to the 17-game season. The 25 wins combined between these two teams is the most ever for a Wild Card matchup. This is a rematch of the regular season opener when the Eagles downed the Packers, 34-29, in São Paulo, Brazil. In that game, Jalen Hurts threw for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns, A.J. Brown had 5 catches for 119 yards, including a 67-yard score, and Saquon Barkley embarked on his 2,000-yard season by running for 109 yards and scoring three total touchdowns in his Philadelphia debut.
Jordan Love threw for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns, while wide receiver Jayden Reed had 138 yards and a touchdown. Josh Jacobs had a solid debut of his own, rushing for 84 yards for Green Bay. The Packers are still the second-youngest team in the NFL.
This contest could come down to how Hurts returns from missing multiple games while in concussion protocol. While teammates said he looked good when he first returned to practice this week, the Packers will do everything they can to stunt his progress in the pocket.
Philadelphia was second in the NFL in rushing, with 179 yards per game. That’s thanks primarily to Barkley, who posted the ninth 2,000-yard rushing season in league history. He averaged 125 yards a game before sitting out the regular season finale. Green Bay, which finished sixth in the league in scoring defense, will need to find a way to keep Barkley from running wild.
The Packers have injury concerns of their own. Jordan Love hurt his elbow in last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears, while explosive receiver Christian Watson tore an ACL and is lost for the playoffs. They’ll most likely turn heavily to Jacobs, who averaged 4.4 yards per carry while accumulating 1,329 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground. It was the fourth time in six seasons the former Raider surpassed 1,000 yards. He has scored a touchdown in eight straight games.
However, Green Bay is facing the league’s second-ranked scoring defense. New defensive coordinator Vic Fangio took over a unit that finished 31st against the pass last season and skyrocketed them to first in passing yards and first in total yards overall. Their efforts on that side of the ball also allowed the Eagles to lead the league in time of possession (32 minutes, 33 seconds).
Green Bay is 0-5 against the spread and 1-4 straight up in its previous five games against teams with a winning percentage of .615 or better this season. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last five contests against teams with top-10 scoring defenses. Look for the Eagles to cover the 4.5-point spread late as favorites and advance to the divisional round.
Pick #2: Under 45.5 (-105)
These two teams combined for 63 points the first time around, but strong scoring defenses and temperatures in the 20s suggest a lower combined scoring output this time around. This is not the same Eagles team that limped into the playoffs last year, losing 5 of 6 before meekly bowing out to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Philadelphia has won 12 of 13, with a last-minute loss to the Washington Commanders being the only blemish since September.
Both teams allow less than 20 points a game, and we are banking on the Eagles holding their opponent to 20 points or less for the 12th time in 14 games. Look for Green Bay and Philadelphia to total Under 45.5 total points.
Pick #3: Saquon Barkley Over 101.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Barkley sat out last week’s regular-season finale against his old team, the New York Giants, and dismissed his chance at breaking the league’s single-season rushing record specifically to make a long playoff run.
It’s simple. Philadelphia is 10-1 when Barkley runs for 107 yards or more. With Hurts regaining his footing, expect Barkley to receive close to 30 carries, his average in the last two games played, and nine more than he averaged per game this season. Look for Barkley to rush for more than 101.5 yards for the 12th time this season.
