Packers vs. Buccaneers Prediction, NFL Week 4 Odds & Best Bets (10/4)

Fact checked at 8:30 AM ET, Oct 4, 2026

Odds as of Oct 4, 7:36 AM ET

This one is about the Tampa Bay quarterback, and it isn't Baker Mayfield. Mayfield dislocated his right thumb late in last Sunday's loss to Minnesota, and Todd Bowles put it plainly: "Right now we're probably talking a minimum of three weeks." So the 0-3 Buccaneers hand the ball to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels for his first NFL start, with Easton Stick elevated to back him up. Daniels has thrown three pro passes. The last was an intercepted Hail Mary. Bowles expects Green Bay (1-2) to "blitz him a lot." Every Tampa Bay receiving number this season came with Mayfield throwing, so we're not leaning on any of them.

The market moved hard. Green Bay opened -1.5 with a total of 47.5 on Sep 22, and the consensus at 7:36 AM ET was Packers -3 (-113) with the total at 38.5. That's nine points off the total, a drop that follows the quarterback news. The Packers aren't whole either. Guards Aaron Banks and Jacob Monk are out, and Green Bay's run game is last in the league at 48.7 yards per game, running into a Tampa Bay run defense that ranks second at 76. Our Golden pick rides Green Bay's passing day; Love's rushing Under doesn't care how it goes. Kickoff is 1:00 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa on FOX. Expect mostly to partly sunny skies and 88 to 89 degrees through the game window, a heat index as high as 102, rain chances of 6% to 14% until 4 PM and isolated storms possible after that.

Packers vs. Buccaneers Predictions

• Pick #1: Jordan Love Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
• Pick #2: Matthew Golden Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

PICK #1: Jordan Love Under 5.5 Rushing Yards (-118)

Two carries, zero yards, three games. That's Love's rushing line this season, and Green Bay's offense gives him no reason to change it. He has played every offensive snap, thrown 42, 29 and 53 times, and taken eight sacks (4, 3 and 1) while running only twice. As a team the Packers have 124 pass attempts against 48 carries at 3.04 yards per carry, and they managed 9 carries for 17 yards in the loss to Atlanta. Tampa Bay held Cincinnati to 106 rushing yards, Cleveland to 44 and Minnesota to 78, which tells you why the backs won't fix this. But the bet itself rests on Love, and Love hasn't gained a rushing yard.

The market sees it closer than that. The Over was -107 at 7:45 AM ET, so books rate one scramble nearly as likely as none. Tampa Bay blitzes a lot, Green Bay is down Banks and Monk, and a collapsing pocket can push even a quarterback who stays put into one 6-yard run. At -118, the Under implies 54.1%. Love is not on Green Bay's injury report; inactives aren't out yet.

Prefer the passing side? Love Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+111) is the alternative, since he has thrown two in every game. The Under doesn't depend on the passing day at all, which is why it pairs cleanly with Golden's Over.

PICK #2: Matthew Golden Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Golden has gone over this number in all three games, and that includes both games without Jayden Reed. Reed played 57% of the snaps in Week 1, 3% in Week 2, and is now out for the season, so Weeks 2 and 3 are the ones that look like Sunday. Golden had 58 and 100 in them. His full log is 95, 58 and 100 yards on 12, 6 and 12 targets, with 82%, 86% and 82% of the snaps, and those targets were deep: 137, 80 and 199 air yards. He has also taken at least 24% of Love's passing yards every week. Apply that to the 238.5 yards Love is lined for and you get about 57, just over the line.

Tampa Bay's pass defense is neither a weakness nor a wall. It allows 220 passing yards per game, around the middle of the league (Cincinnati threw for 254, Cleveland 238, Minnesota 168). Cornerback Benjamin Morrison is out, and cornerback Jacob Parrish is questionable for a personal matter. Golden isn't on Green Bay's injury report, and the inactives aren't out yet. The -114 price, the prop's own as of 7:45 AM ET, implies 53.3%.

What worries us is game script. Green Bay is a 3-point favorite against a rookie in a game totaled 38.5, and Love's 42 and 53 attempts both came in losses (39-22 at Minnesota, 35-14 to Atlanta). In the one close game, a 20-17 overtime win over the Jets, he threw 29 times. Golden still got 58 yards on 6 targets, a yard and a half over this number, so a low-volume day leaves almost no cushion. A blitz-heavy defense could also push Green Bay toward quicker throws instead of Golden's deep ones, and Christian Watson (8, 11 and 10 targets) could soak up more than Golden's 6 looks from the win.

If you'd rather take the catches, Golden Over 4.5 Receptions (-119) is the alternative.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.