Pacers vs Thunder NBA Finals Game 2 picks, 6/8

The 2025 NBA Finals continue on Sunday night as the Oklahoma City Thunder look to bounce back after a stunning Game 1 collapse at home against the Indiana Pacers. Game 2 tips off at 8:00 PM ET on ABC, live from Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, and the big storyline is whether the Thunder can respond to adversity, which is something they’ve done well throughout this postseason.

Despite being heavy favorites, OKC trails 1-0 in the series after Indiana stormed back late to steal Game 1, 111-110, on a clutch Tyrese Haliburton pull-up mid-range jumper with 0.3 seconds left. Can the Pacers pull off another upset, or will the Thunder respond with the kind of statement they’ve made all postseason long? Let’s get into our Pacers vs Thunder best bets for Game 2.

Pacers vs Thunder Game 2 Predictions

Spread Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -11 over Indiana Pacers (-110)

Game Total Pick: Under 228 Points (-110)

Player Prop Pick: Jalen Williams Over 26.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)

Spread Pick: Thunder -11 over Pacers (-110)

At first glance, an 11-point spread – a jump up from a 9.5 Game 1 point spread – might look steep after Indiana easily covered and won Game 1 on OKC’s home floor. But context is key. The Thunder led most of the way by 11-15 points and Indiana committed 25 turnovers, but Oklahoma City allowed 39 bench points while shooting just 11-of-30 from deep.

It was the ultimate “smash-and-grab” game from Indiana. Meanwhile, OKC’s offense looked disjointed all game, especially in the final four minutes, taking just three field-goal attempts. It’s the kind of performance that won’t repeat itself, especially with Mark Daigneault and company likely to revert to their traditional two-big lineup for Game 2 and playing at their typical up-tempo pace after the one-big experiment and methodical offensive approach backfired.

We expect a furious Thunder response. This is a team that followed up a buzzer-beating Game 1 loss to Denver in the second round with a 43-point win in Game 2. And when they had a closeout game back home against Minnesota, they won by 30. Look for the Thunder to get back to themselves, speed the game up, pressure the ball and hunt Haliburton on defense. Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren are unlikely to combine to go 8-for-28 from the field again this series. OKC has too much firepower and defensive tenacity to let this be a trend. 

Game Total Pick: Under 228 Points (-110)

Despite both teams’ reputations for high-paced, efficient offense, Game 1 ended at 221 total points, and even that was misleading. Indiana shot 46% from three (18-of-39) and Obi Toppin had a once-in-a-series type game with five threes off the bench. The Thunder, meanwhile, were inefficient from deep, and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander needed 30 shots to get to 38 points.

Even with that shooting variance, the total didn’t sniff 230. Now imagine a more locked-in Thunder defense, which only forced six second-half turnovers after forcing 19 in the first half. Keeping the points off turnovers down, the Pacers should be able to keep up their incredible transition defense. 

The Thunder should be able to force Indiana into longer possessions and squeeze their offense in Game 2, especially with better communication and sharper execution from their wing defenders.

If the Pacers don’t shoot nearly 50% from deep again, and it’s unlikely they repeat that feat, this total is simply too high. Plus, we expect the Thunder to clean up their shot selection and defensive effort, meaning fewer empty trips and fast breaks in general.

Player Prop Pick: Jalen Williams Over 26.5 Points+Rebounds (-110)

Jalen Williams had a rough outing in Game 1, finishing with 17 points on 6-of-19 shooting while grabbing only four rebounds. But if you’ve followed this Thunder playoff run, you know what’s likely to happen next.

Williams has made a habit of responding after poor shooting nights. After going 3-for-16 in Game 6 against Denver, he dropped 24 points on 10-of-17 shooting in the following game. When he shot 7-of-18 in Game 1 against Minnesota, he answered in Game 2 with 26 points on 12-of-20 shooting. His Game 3 dud in that same series was followed by 34 points on 13-of-24 in Game 4.

Expect Williams to be more aggressive from the jump, both in shooting and attacking the glass. The Pacers out-rebounded OKC 56-39 in Game 1, so one key adjustment will be for Williams to crash the glass more regularly. He’s had 6+ rebounds in nearly half of his playoff games this postseason and can easily clear this number with a 22+ point, 6+ rebound type of night.

With the Thunder offense due for a much more fluid performance and Williams with a chip on his shoulder, the bounce-back opportunity on this line is strong.