Pacers vs. Grizzlies Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (11/4)

Fact checked at 7:30 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

Odds as of 7:00 AM ET, Nov 4, 2026

The Pacers (2-6) visit the Grizzlies (6-1) at FedExForum for an 8:00 PM ET tip. Memphis should win this one comfortably. The Grizzlies average 123 points a game and won their first two home games by 20 and 31. Indiana does get Pascal Siakam, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith back, but those three lost by 5, 20 and 8 in their last three games together. So we're laying the points with Memphis and taking rookie forward Cameron Boozer to make at least two threes.

Indiana is still without Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring), T.J. McConnell (hamstring), Ben Sheppard (knee) and Johnny Furphy (knee). Ivica Zubac (ankle) has missed five straight games and is questionable on the latest league report, as are Obi Toppin and Kelly Oubre Jr. Memphis is missing Scotty Pippen Jr., and Quinten Post is questionable. Neither team is on a back-to-back.

Pacers vs. Grizzlies Predictions

• Pick #1: Grizzlies -7.5 (-106)
• Pick #2: Cameron Boozer Over 1.5 Threes (-190)

PICK #1: Grizzlies -7.5 (-106)

Indiana announced its three starters were coming back before this line went up, and the number still moved toward Memphis. One major book opened the Grizzlies at -6.5; most books now sit at -7.5. With Siakam, Nembhard and Nesmith all in the lineup, Indiana lost 114-109 to Philadelphia, 145-125 at Miami and 98-90 at home to Brooklyn. Its last game, a 108-104 loss to Atlanta with only six players available, was closer than any of them.

Memphis has scored 123 or more in five of seven games and held five of seven opponents to 108 or fewer. Its four wins by more than 7.5 came by 20 over Utah, 11 at Sacramento, 21 at Portland and 31 over Sacramento. Indiana scores 111.8 a game, allows 115.6, and has lost five straight in Memphis.

At -106, the line implies a 51.5% chance. Memphis has covered this number in four of seven games, and its only loss was 135-134 in overtime to New Orleans after a 6-0 start. This is the popular side, too: about 83% of spread bets are on Memphis, and one model we track has the Grizzlies winning by fewer than three. Zubac is the bigger threat. If he plays, Indiana has its starting center back for the first time in six games.

PICK #2: Cameron Boozer Over 1.5 Threes (-190)

Boozer shoots from deep every night. He has attempted at least five threes in all seven games, 44 in total, and made two or more in five of them: 0, 4, 2, 1, 4, 3 and 2 in order. He has played 26 to 38 minutes in each game and is a probable starter at forward again.

Indiana lets teams shoot. Its last five opponents averaged 42 three-point attempts, and Atlanta went 23 of 51 in Indiana's last game. If Memphis wins by margin, Boozer should get plenty of looks along the way.

The -190 price implies 65.5%, and he's hit at 71% across seven games. That's a short record for a rookie with no NBA history before this season, and it's not a big cushion. A blowout could also trim his minutes. He played 26 in the 31-point win over Sacramento, though he still made three threes that night.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.