Pacers vs. Bucks Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/26)

Fact checked at 8:09 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Odds as of 7:39 AM ET, Oct 26, 2026

Milwaukee is 0-3 and has given up 128, 132 and 127 points in those losses. That is 129 a night, the most in the league, and Indiana arrives at Fiserv Forum at 2-1, scoring 121.3 a game (fifth) and fresh off a 136-109 rout of Brooklyn. Three games is a thin record for both teams, but every Bucks game so far has gone past tonight's total.

We expect a shootout. Indiana's starters should score freely against that defense, Milwaukee should score enough to keep up, and the game should clear the number. All three picks need that game: Andrew Nembhard and Pascal Siakam are the Pacers we want cashing in on the Bucks' defense, and the Over is the total those two big nights help push past.

Indiana is -4.5 at -110, where the spread opened, with the Pacers -170 on the moneyline and the Bucks +140. The total opened at 240.5 and hasn't moved, Over -109 and Under -110. The Pacers are on the second night of a back-to-back and probably without starting center Ivica Zubac, who sprained his left ankle in the first quarter at Brooklyn and didn't return; coach Rick Carlisle called him unlikely to play. Tyrese Haliburton said after the Brooklyn win that he will play, which would make this his first back-to-back since his return from the Achilles injury. Indiana has not yet filed its injury report, and Milwaukee has no one listed on it.

The game tips at 8:00 PM ET in Milwaukee.

Pacers vs. Bucks Predictions

• Pick #1: Andrew Nembhard Over 14.5 Points (-117)
• Pick #2: Pascal Siakam 25+ Points + Assists (-200)
• Pick #3: Over 240.5 (-109)

PICK #1: Andrew Nembhard Over 14.5 Points (-117)

Nobody Milwaukee has played has scored fewer than 127 points, and Nembhard gets 30-plus minutes and a real share of the shots in Indiana's starting backcourt, which gives him a clear path to 15.

He has started all three games and played between 30 and 34 minutes each time. He scored 18 at New Orleans, 16 against Dallas and 14 at Brooklyn, so he's over 14.5 in two of three. Even in the Brooklyn game, a 27-point blowout, he played 30 minutes and hit 4 of 6 from three. The Over at -117 implies a 53.9% chance, and the Under is -109.

His last game did land at 14, a point short, and three games isn't much history. The back-to-back and a lopsided score could both trim his minutes. Don't count on Zubac's likely absence to help, either: those minutes should go to Jay Huff and Obi Toppin more than to the guards.

PICK #2: Pascal Siakam 25+ Points + Assists (-200)

Siakam has cleared 25 points plus assists in every game: 31 at New Orleans (30 points, one assist), 26 against Dallas (23 and three) and 27 at Brooklyn (21 and six). He got that 27 in only 26 minutes of a blowout, with the ball moving well enough for six assists. He played 35 and 29 minutes in the other two.

Milwaukee's interior is where its defense breaks down. Washington scored 70 points in the paint against the Bucks in their opener, and Chicago scored 62 there and went 28 of 30 at the line. Siakam works in the mid-post and at the rim and draws fouls; he went 4 of 6 from the line at Brooklyn. Because he can get there with points, assists or both, the combined number suits him better than his points line of 23.5, which he has topped only once.

This is the shortest price on the card. At -200 the implied chance is 66.7%, so a miss costs twice what a win pays, and the record is three games long. Another blowout on the second night of a back-to-back could sit him for the fourth quarter. A thinner frontcourt without Zubac could add minutes for Siakam, or make them more physical.

PICK #3: Over 240.5 (-109)

Indiana's three games finished 136-109, 121-105 and 123-120, so two went over 240.5. Milwaukee lost 128-116, 132-125 and 127-116, all three over. That's 5 of 6 between the two teams, against a price of -109 that implies 52.2%. Some books have 239.5, a better number for the Over.

The Bucks hold up their end. They average 119 through three games, Tyler Herro scored 34 against Chicago, and Kel'el Ware had 19 points and 13 rebounds at Philadelphia. They also shoot plenty of threes, 19 of 46 against Chicago. Indiana runs when it gets stops: 25 fast-break points, 34 assists and 21 of 43 from three at Brooklyn. Something in the mid-120s for Indiana and the high 110s for Milwaukee gets there.

The market hasn't chased this; the total sits right where it opened. Tired legs on a back-to-back and a likely missing center both point toward a slower night, and three-game scoring averages swing a lot. Indiana's one game under this number, a 121-105 home loss to Dallas, shows how quickly a cold shooting night can sink it.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.