Our Best Bet for Monday Night Football: Bears v Patriots

A key variable that might swing the lines will be whether Baily Zappe or Mac Jones will be lining up as Pats QB. Reports suggest Jones is good to go following a solid hit out on Friday. We’re not sure he should be though. Zappe has had better numbers in almost all the important metrics (although the sample size is small). In his short stint since relieving for Hoyer in Week 4, Zappe is 51-for-70 passing for 596 yards with four touchdowns and an interception. Not bad for a 4th round pick. Those stats put him in the top 4 QBs in the league over the period.

Zappe also sounds like he’ll be ready to go if he is called upon again. "I will study the game plan the same way I would whether I was third string or a starter," Zappe said. "That's kind of the mentality I take into it every week. That's the mentality I'm going to take into this week, so I think that's going to carry on into the rest of the year."

As for the Bears, they’ve hit struggle town. They’ve lost three in a row since winning two of their first three, with each defeat coming by one possession. The Bears have been cold since opening Week 6 with a 12-7 Thursday night home loss to Washington.

We think the big deficiency of the Bears has been their defence. They’ve allowed 163 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yds per attempt on average. This ranks them a lowly 29th and 24th in the NFL. Their offense has not been great either. They’re not giving young second year QB enough space to work, he’s been sacked 23 times on 115 pass attempts. Way too much for a young QB trying to find his feet.

The Public Money is also coming heavily for the Pats Moneyline.

Top performing bettor Mgriff026, who is running at 52-42 and a 10% ROI is seeing value in the Moneyline.

See all of the best NFL picks from the sharpest bettors on OddsCrowd.

The bottom line is, we just can’t be backing a poor performing team with a young QB, against a sharp and firing Bill Bellichick offense playing at home in Monday Night Football. We’re building our bankroll there with a Moneyline bet on the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots Moneyline

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