Our Best Bet, Best Prop & +252 Parlay: Thursday Night Football

Welcome to our betting guide for the Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers matchup for Thursday Night Football. We’ve got a Best Bet, Best Prop and a Same Game Parlay for you. To see all of our Best for Thursday night, click here. To see the Best Odds on this matchup, click here.

Best Bet

We have two very recent form lines to refer to here.

1.    The Falcons hosted the Panthers for a 3 point win to Atlanta just two weeks ago. The Panthers have the home advantage this time around, but the books have again marked this as a 3 point spread which we find interesting.

2.    Both teams recently faced the Bengals. The Bengals dominated the Panthers last week with a dominant 42-21 win. The Falcons also got dominated by the Bengals four weeks ago 35-17. Much the same scoreline in our view.

Given the above, we think the Sportsbooks should have this game at even money/PK. One other factor we think needs consideration is that we believe the books overreact in the following week to large losses like the Panthers experienced last week at the Bengals. Over the past three seasons, teams coming off a loss of over 20 points, the losing team has gone 67-49 (58%) against the spread (ATS).

So we are taking the Panthers at +2.5 here. CNervins (58-52) is as well. The Answer Key (254-201) is taking them at the Moneyline, but we like the additional insurance.

Pick: Panthers +2.5

Best Prop

We’ve taken a look through to the recent stat lines for each team and also for the last two games between these two teams (10/30/22 and 12/12/21). The player who stands out to us is D.J. Moore:

-      Recorded over 84+ receiving yards in each of his last two games against the Panthers

-      Scored a TD in two of his last three games

We like his chances of covering the 55.5 yard receiving line.

Pick: D.J. Moore 55+ Receiving Yards

Same Game Parlay

Leg 1: Panthers +2.5

Leg 2: D.J. Moore 55+ Receiving Yards

This Parlay is paying +252 at the time of writing with FanDuel.