Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/24)

Fact checked at 7:14 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Odds as of 7:13 AM ET, Oct 24, 2026

Two SEC teams on losing streaks meet in Starkville. Oklahoma (3-3, 1-2 SEC) lost 21-13 at home to Kentucky last week and has scored 14 points or fewer in four of its last five games. Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2 SEC) has dropped two straight, 56-23 to Alabama and 31-0 at LSU. Quarterback Kamario Taylor missed the LSU game with a toe injury and is listed as questionable, though On3 reports he is expected to play. Running back Fluff Bothwell, who also sat out in Baton Rouge, is off the injury report. Kickoff is Saturday at 3:30 PM ET at Davis Wade Stadium, with sun, upper-70s temperatures and a light east wind in the forecast.

Oklahoma is a 2.5-point favorite and the total is 47.5. The spread opened at 2.5 on Oct 18, stretched to around 4.5 during the week and came back, and the total opened at 48.5. The prediction models we track average Mississippi State by 1.3. Bettors lean to the Over, with 62% of the bets and 66% of the money.

Our read is a low-scoring Mississippi State win. Oklahoma's offense has stalled for a month, with 13 turnovers in its last five games and two offensive linemen out, while its defense keeps games short and close. A Bulldogs win in the low 20s cashes all three picks.

Oklahoma vs. Mississippi State Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 47.5 (-105)
• Pick #2: Mississippi State +2.5 (-115)
• Pick #3: Sanfrisco Magee 30+ Receiving Yards (-160)

PICK #1: Under 47.5 (-105)

Start with the Oklahoma offense. The Sooners have 128 points in six games, and outside of a 51-0 win over UTEP and a 27-24 win over Texas, they scored 10 at Michigan, 14 against New Mexico, 13 at Georgia and 13 against Kentucky. They run for 92.5 yards a game. John Mateer has thrown for under 240 yards in four of his last five games and was intercepted three times by Kentucky. Offensive linemen Eddy Pierre-Louis and Ryan Fodje are out, and two more linemen are questionable.

The Oklahoma defense allows 18.2 points, 109.3 rushing yards and 151.3 passing yards a game, and only one running back has reached 50 rushing yards against it this season. Taylor's toe matters here, too. Even if he plays, a quarterback coming off turf toe is less of a threat to run.

At -105, the Under needs to win 51.2% of the time, and an offense this stuck makes 48 a high number to reach. Mississippi State's scoring is the danger. Five of its six games went over 47.5, including 41-34 at South Carolina and 31-24 against Missouri, and its defense gives up 28.5 points a game. If Taylor is fully healthy, the Bulldogs can push this total on their own.

PICK #2: Mississippi State +2.5 (-115)

Oklahoma hasn't handled being the favorite. The Sooners lost at Michigan as a favorite, beat New Mexico just 14-6 as a huge favorite and lost at home to Kentucky as a favorite, and they've turned it over 13 times in five games. Their one strong result in that stretch, 27-24 over Texas, came as an underdog.

With Taylor, Mississippi State has put up points. The Bulldogs beat Missouri 31-24 in Starkville and won 41-34 at South Carolina as an underdog, and Taylor has 1,450 passing yards in his five games. Bothwell ran for 113, 115 and 122 yards in three straight games before he got hurt, and he's back. The models we follow have Mississippi State slightly ahead on average, and the line has come back toward the Bulldogs since Oklahoma was laying around 4.5 in midweek.

This price implies 53.5%. We have the home side winning outright more often than not, and the 2.5 points cover most close Oklahoma wins too. Taylor is the worry: Mississippi State scored zero at LSU without him, and if he can't go or can't move, this gets much harder. An Oklahoma win by exactly three also beats it.

PICK #3: Sanfrisco Magee 30+ Receiving Yards (-160)

Magee has cleared 30 receiving yards in all six games this season, no matter who threw to him. He had 35 against Louisiana-Monroe, 42 at Minnesota, 55 at South Carolina, 76 against Missouri, 51 against Alabama and 36 at LSU, where backup Parker Puckett started at quarterback. That adds up to 19 catches for 295 yards and five touchdowns, 15.5 yards a catch.

At -160, the break-even rate is 61.5%. He's gotten there with Taylor and without him, in wins and in a 31-0 loss, and he's the target in scoring range, with touchdown catches against Minnesota, South Carolina and Missouri (two). With fewer possessions to work with, the Bulldogs should keep taking downfield shots his way, and one or two of them usually does it.

The catch count is thin. Magee has caught between two and four passes in every game, so a drop or one well-covered deep ball can sink this. Oklahoma allows just 151.3 passing yards a game, and this is Magee's first season in the role after five catches for 80 yards in 2025.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.