Notre Dame vs. Villanova Prediction, Men's College Basketball Odds & Best Bets (11/1)

Fact checked at 8:20 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

Odds as of 7:24 AM ET, Nov 1, 2026

Notre Dame and Villanova open the men's season at 9:30 AM ET on Fox at Palazzo dello Sport in Rome, a neutral floor. Villanova is a 7.5-point favorite and the better team on paper. We expect a slow, disjointed first game without enough scoring or possessions for the Wildcats to pull away, so we're on the Under and Notre Dame with the points. A 74-68 Villanova win is the kind of game we mean.

The evidence is thin. Both teams are 0-0 with rebuilt rosters, so all we have is last season's numbers, preseason ratings, exhibitions and what the coaches have said. Villanova forward Kwame Evans Jr. missed all three exhibitions with a leg injury and has been reported as both expected to play and a game-time decision. Notre Dame center Logan Duncomb sat out the last exhibition with a left leg injury and has been listed as day-to-day and expected to be available.

Notre Dame vs. Villanova Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 146.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Notre Dame +7.5 (-116)

PICK #1: Under 146.5 (-108)

Neither coach plays fast. Villanova ranked 294th nationally in adjusted tempo last season on one rating and 302nd on another. Notre Dame was 260th and 252nd on those same ratings, and no better than 313th in either of Micah Shrewsberry's first two seasons. Those were other rosters, but he and Kevin Willard are still the ones setting the pace.

We don't see these groups making up for that with shot-making yet. Notre Dame's two exhibitions produced 140 and 134 combined points, and it shot 6-of-26 from three at Dayton. Villanova's starting lineup changed in each of its three exhibitions. "We'll get there, but we're not ready," Willard said after the last one. Shrewsberry's read on his own team: "I think we're a question mark for everybody right now, right, even for ourselves." Both teams also had a Mass and a papal audience the day before the game, and Villanova's bus reached its Rome hotel well after midnight, which pushed its next practice back an hour.

At -108 you're paying for a 51.9% chance. The total has already slipped from the high 140s, so some of the value is gone, but we still think it's a little too high for a first game like this one.

Hot shooting beats this. Virginia scored 93 on Villanova in its last exhibition and made 15 threes, and Notre Dame hit 12 of 30 at DePaul. Evans would add another shooter; Willard said, "we're a different basketball team when he's out there." The occasion could also push the pace up.

PICK #2: Notre Dame +7.5 (-116)

That same slow game is why we want the points. One widely used preseason rating has Villanova 31st and Notre Dame 82nd, a gap of 9.5 points per 100 possessions. Even at the national average of about 71 possessions, that's under seven points, and neither of these teams played near that pace last season. It's only a preseason projection, but it leaves this number a little high against an implied 53.7%.

Villanova's preseason didn't look finished, either. It lost its final exhibition 93-71 to No. 9 Virginia with 16 turnovers, eight of them by Devin Royal. Luigi Suigo, its 7-foot-3, 19-year-old freshman center, fouled out against George Mason before committing one foul against Virginia, and backup center Nico Onyekwere didn't make the trip because of a visa issue. Evans has no game work with this team, and if he sits, both picks look better.

Notre Dame has shown a little more than its 16th-of-18 ACC pick suggests, though only in games that don't count. It led for 32:15 of its 71-63 exhibition win at DePaul, playing without Duncomb and losing Braeden Shrewsberry to a bruised back after six minutes. Brady Koehler scored 19, and the coach said, "When he plays like that, we're a totally different team."

The talent gap is still real. Villanova was picked third in the Big East and returns Tyler Perkins, who averaged 13.7 points last season. Notre Dame went 13-18 and lost its three leading scorers, and it also lost its exhibition at Dayton 75-65. If Duncomb sits or is limited, Suigo gets a much easier day, Tommy Ahneman is next in line and this pick is weaker.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.