North Texas vs. Tulsa Prediction, CFB Week 5 Odds & Best Bets (10/1)

Fact checked at 8:17 AM ET, Oct 1, 2026

Odds as of Oct 1, 7:30 AM ET

North Texas (2-2) and Tulsa (3-1) open American Conference play against each other on a five-day turnaround, and the betting market still hasn't picked a favorite. Tulsa was a short favorite for most of the week after its 34-6 loss at Arkansas and North Texas's 63-14 win over Houston Christian: 2.5 points in Tuesday's Associated Press preview, 1.5 at many books since. Our 7:30 AM ET consensus has North Texas -1 (-108) and the Mean Green moneyline at -112, but some books still hang Tulsa as the favorite. The total has sat at 57.5 most of the week.

Everything runs through Tulsa's quarterback. Baylor Hayes started the first two games, hurt his knee at Sam Houston and has missed two since. On Monday, coach Tre Lamb called him 50-50: "If it was a Saturday game, I think he'd be a no-doubter." ESPN reported Wednesday that Hayes will start, but Tulsa's game release doesn't name a starter, so we're treating his start as likely rather than settled. If he can't go, it's Dexter Williams II.

North Texas is missing pieces too. Coach Neal Brown doesn't expect running back Brendon Haygood to play, and he called receiver Josiah Martin (lower leg) "probably questionable."

Kickoff is 9:00 PM ET Thursday at H.A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, on ESPN.

North Texas vs. Tulsa Predictions

• Pick #1: Over 57.5 (-110)
• Pick #2: North Texas Moneyline (-112)

PICK #1: Over 57.5 (-110)

North Texas is the reason a total this high is reachable. The Mean Green average 39.5 points and 516 yards, and three of their four games went over the closing number. Be fair about the schedule, though. They hung 63 on Houston Christian, an FCS team, then scored 44 against UNLV, 35 at Texas State and 16 at Indiana. Drop the FCS game and they're at 31.7 a game. Tayven Jackson has started all four at quarterback and threw for 492 yards at Texas State. Jahiem White has nine touchdowns and has scored in every game.

Their defense does its part for the Over. North Texas gave up 52 at Indiana and 49 at Texas State, its only two road games. With Hayes at quarterback, Tulsa scored 24 against Oklahoma State and 23 at Sam Houston, running for 241 yards in that second game.

The Over has only 26% of the tickets but 39% of the money, so the bigger bets are on our side. The number has held at 57.5 most of the week, and at least one book is up to 58.5 this morning. The -110 price implies 52.4%.

There are two big problems. One is Tulsa. All four of its games stayed under, two of them with Williams at quarterback, and its defense has given up just 61 points in four games (10, 17, 0 and 34) with 13 sacks. If Hayes doesn't start, expect the offense that managed six points and 241 yards at Arkansas. The other is the weather. The National Weather Service has a 43% chance of showers and thunderstorms around kickoff, rising to 63% from 10 PM local time, with light wind. A wet night makes 57.5 a lot of points, and 73% of the bets are on the Under.

PICK #2: North Texas Moneyline (-112)

This is a bet on the North Texas offense. It has scored 107 points in its two wins and 51 in its two losses, and it gets a Tulsa defense that has allowed 27 points in three wins and 34 in its loss, with 13 sacks (3.25 a game). Tulsa's offense is the weaker one in this game. It averages 23.8 points, and 42 of its 95 came against FCS East Texas A&M. It throws for 173.3 yards a game.

The price says coin flip: -112, the 7:30 AM ET consensus, implies 52.8%. The Mean Green have 63% of the spread money on 45% of the bets.

The market hasn't settled anything. The line has bounced between Tulsa -2.5 and North Texas -1 this week as the Hayes news changed, and some books still have Tulsa favored this morning. Shop around for the best North Texas price.

Location is the worry. North Texas is 0-2 on the road (52-16 at Indiana, 49-35 at Texas State), and Tulsa is 2-0 at home, including the 24-10 win over Oklahoma State with Hayes. A healthy Hayes is Tulsa at its best, the report that he'll start is good news for the home side, and 56% of the moneyline bets are on Tulsa. On the North Texas side, Haygood's likely absence puts more of the run game on White, and Martin (11 catches, 161 yards) could be out.

You can play the same side at North Texas -1 (-108), with the catch that a one-point win is a push there and a win on the moneyline. The two picks work together because both need North Texas points. A Mean Green win along the lines of 31-27 cashes both.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.