Suns vs. Trail Blazers Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:43 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:42 AM ET

Portland's opening-night backcourt has never played a regular-season game together. Damian Lillard is back on the floor after missing all of last season with an Achilles injury, and Ja Morant came over from Memphis in a June trade for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. New coach Micah Nori is starting both of them with Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara and Donovan Clingan, which sends Jrue Holiday and Scoot Henderson to the bench. Phoenix still has Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks and added Miles Bridges from Charlotte, but Mark Williams is out after shoulder surgery and Jordan Ott hasn't picked a starting center between Oso Ighodaro and Khaman Maluach. Portland went 42-40 last season and lost to San Antonio in five games in the first round. Phoenix went 45-37 and got swept by Oklahoma City.

Portland opened at -3.5 on Sunday and is down to a 2.5-point favorite. The total has come down from 234.5 to 231.5. Avdija is questionable with right ankle soreness, Shaedon Sharpe is out after knee surgery in August, and Phoenix's Luke Kennard is questionable with a sore left knee. Tip-off is 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center.

Suns vs. Trail Blazers Predictions

• Pick #1: Under 231.5 (-108)
• Pick #2: Jrue Holiday Under 12.5 Points (-125)

PICK #1: Under 231.5 (-108)

Neither offense was better than average last season, and both defenses were. Phoenix finished 16th in offensive rating, 10th in defensive rating and 24th in pace, and allowed 111.1 points a game, sixth fewest in the league. Portland was 20th on offense and 14th on defense. Suns games averaged about 224 combined points and Blazers games about 231, so this number sits at or above what either team's games produced on average.

The market has already come our way, dropping three points since Sunday, and a projection puts this game at 224.4 (Portland 112.5, Phoenix 111.9). The -108 price works out to a 51.9% break-even.

Opening night with this much roster turnover should help too. Lillard didn't play last season, Morant has played 79 games over the last three seasons, and Nori said he's "more concerned of the combinations" than with who starts. Sharpe is out, and Avdija, who dropped 41 on Phoenix in last April's play-in game, is questionable. Phoenix is without its starting center and still sorting out who replaces him.

This can go wrong. Nori wants Morant pushing the pace, and Portland's preseason games with its starters were high scoring: a 123-118 win over Golden State and a 128-118 loss at Golden State. Lillard and Morant also give Portland more offense than it had last season. And 86% of bets and 82% of the money are already on the Under, so nobody should mistake this for a contrarian play.

PICK #2: Jrue Holiday Under 12.5 Points (-125)

Holiday averaged 16.3 points in 29.4 minutes a game as a starter last season, and Nori just took that job away. Lillard and Morant start in the backcourt on opening night, and Holiday comes off the bench next to Henderson, another guard who likes to have the ball.

He played three of Portland's four exhibitions: 5 points in 19 minutes off the bench against Golden State, 6 points in 15 minutes in a start against the London Lions, and 11 points in 21 minutes off the bench at Sacramento. That's 7.3 points in 18.3 minutes a night. Nori has said he'll run a 10-man rotation, and Holiday said he likes it because "the minutes are split up."

His low-minute games from last season point the same way. In the 10 games Holiday played 24 minutes or fewer, most of them in January, he averaged 11.2 points and stayed under 12.5 seven times. At -125, the book is giving the Under a 55.6% chance.

Avdija is the main risk here. If he sits, Portland's guards get more minutes and more shots. Holiday also missed the preseason finale with a swollen right hand, but Nori said the X-ray showed nothing broken, and Holiday isn't on the injury report.

Both bets want the same game: Portland still sorting out its rotation, Holiday playing a smaller part, and the final score staying under the number.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.