Warriors vs. Lakers Prediction, NBA Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:46 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:44 AM ET

Golden State opens the season in Los Angeles four rotation players short. Jimmy Butler III (right ACL) and Moses Moody (left patellar tendon) are out with knee injuries, Kristaps Porzingis is not with the team and is out indefinitely, and Brandin Podziemski (lower back) was ruled out on the league's injury report. Stephen Curry is probable after turning his right ankle at Sunday's open practice. He practiced Monday and Tuesday, and Steve Kerr said he is ready to go with no minutes restriction expected. The Lakers play their first game since LeBron James left for Philadelphia. Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves and newcomer Walker Kessler will start, while JJ Redick held off on naming his two forwards. Collin Sexton is questionable with a calf strain.

The Lakers opened as 5.5-point favorites, and the line has moved to 6.5 with the moneyline at -218. The total is 234.5. With Porzingis gone, Draymond Green is expected to start at center and run the Warriors' offense, with rookie Yaxel Lendeborg at forward next to him. Both picks come from that frontcourt. Tip-off is 10:00 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena.

Warriors vs. Lakers Predictions

• Pick #1: Draymond Green Over 5.5 Assists (-149)
• Pick #2: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)

PICK #1: Draymond Green Over 5.5 Assists (-149)

Green starts at center and the ball will be in his hands. Kerr said he is "very comfortable" with Green at the five next to Lendeborg or Gui Santos, and the offense works best when Green makes the decisions in the short roll and on the perimeter. Podziemski's absence takes another ball handler off the floor.

He was already running the offense in October. Green averaged 6.3 assists and 1.5 turnovers in four preseason games, with 10 assists in 24 minutes of the finale against Portland and eight in 15 minutes against the Lakers on Oct. 6.

Last season's full numbers make the price look rich at first. Green topped 5.5 assists in 36 of his 68 games (52.9%) and averaged 5.5 in 27.5 minutes. Split the season at Butler's injury, though, and it changes. In the 32 games Green played after Butler's season ended in January, he had six or more assists 19 times and averaged 5.8. When he played at least 25 minutes in that stretch, he got to six in 14 of 20 games, and he followed with 9 and 6 in two play-in games. The -149 price implies a 59.8% chance. A Green who starts at center with fewer creators around him should get the 25-plus minutes that matter here.

Minutes are the worry. Green is 36, and Golden State has been careful about playing him heavy minutes at center. Al Horford and Charles Bassey (questionable, knee) share the backup center work, and a lopsided game could take away his fourth quarter.

PICK #2: Yaxel Lendeborg Over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)

In five preseason games Lendeborg averaged 15.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 4.0 assists in 23.2 minutes, and his points, rebounds and assists added up to 16, 28, 39, 26 and 26. That's four of five over 25.5, and he never played more than 26 minutes.

The role should give him more time. He started at small forward in the preseason finale and Kerr said Monday that he will start the opener. Kerr tied the Green-at-center plan to him directly: "It's different now that we have Yaxel. We don't feel so small if Draymond's the five this year, with Yaxel next to him." Kerr said his starters would play 25 to 30 minutes in that finale, and a regular-season starter's workload should land at the top of that range or higher.

With Butler, Moody, Porzingis and Podziemski out, Lendeborg should get more shots than he did in a crowded preseason rotation, and with a 6-foot-6 center beside him he has to rebound. A combined line also covers a cold shooting night, since his rebounds and assists still count. The -118 price puts the break-even at 54.1%.

He is still a rookie in his first regular-season game. He struggled defensively against the Lakers in the Oct. 13 preseason game, and foul trouble or a rough start could cost him minutes. Kessler, at 7-foot-2, will also take a share of the rebounds.

Both picks need a competitive game so Golden State's starters play full minutes, and many of Lendeborg's chances will come off Green's passes.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.