New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston Prediction, CFB Week 8 Odds & Best Bets (10/21)

Fact checked at 7:43 AM ET, Oct 21, 2026

Odds as of Oct 21, 7:41 AM ET

New Mexico State (2-4, 1-1 Conference USA) arrives in Huntsville after two weeks off, and Sam Houston (1-5, 0-2) is still waiting on its first league win. The Aggies' last game was a 22-3 loss at FIU on Oct. 7. The Bearkats have scored 3 points in each of their last two: a 35-3 loss at Liberty on Oct. 8 and a 16-3 home loss to Western Kentucky on Oct. 14. Adam Damante makes his third straight start at quarterback for New Mexico State, and coach Tony Sanchez wants second-and-manageable downs so he can hand the ball to James Jones.

New Mexico State is a 2.5-point road favorite at -115 and -135 on the moneyline. The total opened at 47.5 on Oct. 16 and sits at 45.5, with 69% of the money on the Under from 45% of the bets. We see the Aggies running at a defense that can't stop the run while Sam Houston's patched-up offense fails to keep pace, and a game that stays in the low 40s. Kickoff is Wednesday at 8:00 PM ET at Elliott T. Bowers Stadium, and the forecast is mostly clear, low 70s at kickoff, with almost no wind.

New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston Predictions

• Pick #1: James Jones 70+ Rushing Yards (-169)
• Pick #2: Under 45.5 (-118)

PICK #1: James Jones 70+ Rushing Yards (-169)

Jones has hit 70 in five straight games, and that includes the 22-3 loss at FIU, where New Mexico State scored 3 points and threw for 123 yards. Jones still ran for 89 on 15 carries. The rest of the run: 137 on 19 carries against Mercyhurst, 78 on 13 at Hawaii, 112 on 14 against New Mexico and 155 on 20 against Western Kentucky. His only miss against an FBS team was the opener at Florida State, 28 yards on 11 carries. He leads Conference USA at 99.8 rushing yards a game and has 599 yards on 92 carries, 6.5 a pop.

Sam Houston's defense splits in two. It's fourth in FBS against the pass at 137.8 yards a game and 129th against the run at 200.3. Tulsa ran for 241 yards against the Bearkats, Texas Tech for 219, Liberty for 297 and Western Kentucky for 144. Sanchez knows where his yards come from: "When you get the ball in the hands of James Jones and (TJ) Washington and those guys, they're really productive." Sam Houston coach Phil Longo sees the same thing from the other side: "to slow them down or stop them on offense, you've got to stop him."

-169 asks for a 62.8% chance, and against this run defense that looks reachable. Volume is what could go wrong. He has carried 11 to 20 times against FBS teams, Washington has taken six to nine carries in each of the last four games, and a lopsided score either way could cut into his touches.

PICK #2: Under 45.5 (-118)

Start with Sam Houston's offense. The Bearkats have scored 21, 17, 14, 3 and 3 points against FBS teams and haven't found the end zone in two weeks. Against Western Kentucky they gained 177 total yards, with Landyn Locke completing 13 of 30 passes for 112 yards; a week earlier at Liberty he went 20 for 30 for 138. The line is a mess. Longo said starting center Brock Stooks is out for the season and right tackle Isaac Sohn has missed the last two weeks, two true freshmen have started up front in each of the last two games, and Longo has scaled back the game plan. The Bearkats run for 95 yards a game, 133rd of 138 FBS teams, and New Mexico State has held three opponents under 75 rushing yards, Western Kentucky to 46 of them. Four of Sam Houston's five games against FBS opponents stayed under 45.5.

The Aggies won't run up the score on their own. Damante went 9 for 22 for 104 yards and an interception at FIU, Sanchez has been preparing three quarterbacks for the home stretch, and New Mexico State has scored 17, 19, 18, 34 and 3 points against FBS teams. A run-first plan also keeps the clock moving. The price of -118 works out to a 54.1% break-even.

New Mexico State's own totals are the worry. Four of its five games against FBS teams went over 45.5, mostly because the defense gave up 34 to Florida State, 29 to Hawaii and 42 to New Mexico. Locke has big plays in him, too: six of his 11 touchdown passes have covered 30 yards or more. One or two of those, or a short field after an Aggies turnover, could push this past the number.

21+ (18+ where permitted). Odds subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.